There is a strong parity between voters for and against, according to the latest survey published by Cifra.
He PIT-CNT gather signatures to repeal the social security reform and the Uruguayans They begin to define their position in the face of an eventual plebiscite, with a scenario of parity between those who would vote for and against, according to the latest survey of Figure.
The survey shows that 36% of citizens are in favor of the repeal, while an identical percentage would declare against or blank. In this way, the 28% of undecided, that could turn the future of the retirements.
The view varies according to political representation. Thus, 58% of the voters of the National Party was against, while 16% were in favor and 26% were undecided. On the other hand, 61% of the voters of other parties in the Republican Coalition would vote against, while 23% would vote in favor, with 16% undecided.
Among the voters of Broad Front, 53% are in favor of the plebiscite, while 20% would say against or blank, with 27% undecided.
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The experience of the 2019 security plebiscite
The survey included a comparison scenario with the security plebiscite that promoted Jorge Larrañaga in 2019. On that occasion, the yes to the motion had a voting intention of 58% in February of that year and it was decreasing, although it had an absolute majority as the date approached.
However, many adherents whom Cifra described as “lukewarm” decided not to support or forgot to include the ballot in the envelope. For this reason, the consulting firm clarified that “experience suggests that to win a plebiscite you must have large majorities that they support it unconditionally” and concluded that, although the climate may change, “it does not seem to be the case of the plebiscite to repeal the reform of the retirements.
It is worth remembering that, for a plebiscite to achieve its objective, it must obtain more than half of the valid votes. To do this, more than half of the opened envelopes must contain the ballot in favor of the motion being plebiscited.
Source: Ambito
