He global dollar continues its upward path between the different decisions that the central banks are taking these days: yesterday, after the historic decision of the Bank of Japan, rose 0.33%; while today another additional 0.5% has been recorded pending the conclusions of the meeting of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed). In Uruguay, Meanwhile, the international context is also favorable for the exchange rate in the local market.
He dollar is going through a positive streak amidst the news regarding interest rates in the world: with the historic decision of the Central Bank of Japan After ending its policy of negative interest rates after eight years, the US currency rose 0.33%, reaching 103.90 units, its highest level in two weeks.
This positive behavior is repeated today, while investors await the news that the Fed after a new meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). So far this day, the greenback has risen 0.5%.
Meanwhile, fixed income markets remain awaiting the Fed: the performance of the US treasury bonds 10-year, which tends to determine the overall cost of borrowing, operates far from its recent highs; and the return of the Gilt It also falls after the British inflation figures.
“The market is completely undecided about the number of rate cuts from the Fed”, told the Reuters agency Mathieu Savary, of BCA Research, who described it as “a coin toss” between two and three at the moment.
In that sense, for the US central bank, the focus is on the risk that its new economic projections – the famous dot graph – indicate only two rate cuts, compared to three, or a start of the cycle of more cuts. later than June.
The dollar in Uruguay took advantage of the international momentum
In Uruguay, meanwhile, the dollar It rose 0.29% at the close of trading yesterday, driven by the improvements in the currency globally. In this way, it closed at 38,499 pesos, according to the official price of the Central Bank (BCU)and managed to move a little further away from the 37 peso range.
If it continues along this path, it could return to the range of 39 and thus get closer to the expectations that economic agents still maintain for the exchange rate in the local market. However, this will depend, on the one hand, on what happens with the currency internationally—based on what the Fed in his conclusions today—; and, on the other hand, the intrinsic behavior of the ticket in the local scenario, according to the currency flow generated by investments.
For the moment, the dollar It remains in negative territory in the monthly balance, with a 1.40% value lost in March.
Source: Ambito
