He National Milk Institute (Inale) published during its annual meeting the prospects for the dairy price during this year through an analysis of the international context that corresponds to the fact that Uruguay depends on the international market due to its status as an exporter of dairy Worldwide.
From the organization they assured that it is important for the Inale present this information to producers so that they can carry out annual planning. Based on the study of the international situation, the general manager of Inale, Cr. Ulises Calaitzy, presented the estimated price for dairy farmers this year.
With this, they developed two models, one based on time series and the other on a probability simulation model. The first estimated the price per liter between 0.37 and 0.39 dollars, while the second placed the price between 0.32 and 0.37 per liter of milk. However, they anticipated that there could be an improvement but it depends on the balance of supply and demand at the international level.
In addition to this, the organization assured that in the international framework no significant variations in production are expected by the largest exponents: United States, New Zealand, Australia and the European Union. In addition, imports are expected to improve by China.
What is expected from the market in 2024?
According to a quarterly report from the bank specialized in raw materials Rabobank, A record price year is not expected in the sector although, “producers around the world will welcome the return to profitability.”
According to the bank, the milk producers They will be able to have better profitability during this year and early next year, as well as a forecast of increased milk prices to the producer, lower input costs and increased prices of dairy products.
Meanwhile, milk supply from the world’s seven largest producers is also expected to turn positive in the second half of this year. Among them are the European Union, United States, China, Brazil, Argentina, New Zealand and Australia.
Increase in milk shipment in February
The milk remission to Conaprole managed to increase during the month of February by 5% when compared to the same month of the previous year, while the sector’s production managed to grow during January of this year according to preliminaries published by the National Milk Institute (INALE).
Conaprole perceived a remission during the last 24 days of February of 3.1 million liters per day and managed to exceed the volume registered during the same period in the previous year by 5%. It must be taken into account that during February 2023 the sector was deeply affected by the weather conditions of the Uruguay in the midst of a historic drought.
For its part, according to data from Conexión Agropecuaria, the last twelve rolling months showed an increase of 1.4% to Conaprole. Regarding the price remission in January, the vice president of Conaprole, Alejandro Pérez Viazziannounced the application of an increase from 7% to 14% in the seasonal bonus.
Source: Ambito
