The exchange situation in Argentina turns on the first yellow lights in Uruguay: with the sharp escalation of Dolar blue and the widening of the gap between the official exchange rate and the parallel one in the neighboring country, analysts and economists observe a possible rebound of the exchange difference and the consequent diversion of domestic consumption to the other side of the Silver river.
The Uruguayan economy is just beginning to recover from the effects that exchange difference and the price gap generated during the past year, especially in the coastal departments. The most compelling sign of this is the improvement in sales of commerce and services for the first time in almost a year, and in the positive performance of items such as Personal Care, Fuel and Supermarkets.
However, in the last week, the Dolar blue in Argentina It rose a total of 155 Argentine pesos to 1,275 pesos, after touching 1,280, its historical nominal maximum; and the gap with the official exchange rate it widened to 43.3%, the largest difference since February.
In parallel, the official dollar It rose to 890 Argentine pesos.
Why is the dollar rising in Argentina?
According to analysts, the recent cut in the monetary policy rate by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) It is the main reason behind the sharp rise of the parallel dollar. In the last drop, the monetary authority took the reference from 50% to 40%, with a cut of 1,000 basis points. As far as the government of Javier Milei —just a little more than five months—the organization removed 93 percentage points from the rates.
Other arguments pointed out as an explanation behind the rise in the Dolar blue are the low supply of dollars by exports in the official exchange market and widespread doubts among economic agents regarding the approval of the Law Bases in it Congress Argentina —a second version of the so-called Omnibus law, structuring the political direction of the government of Freedom Advances—; but they also point to the devaluation pressure in the face of accusations of an exchange delay in the neighboring country.
Should Uruguay be worried?
“In recent days the gap between the blue dollar and the official one. Although we are far from the values that generated the shopping tourism boom in 2023, it is a variable that should be followed closely,” the economist warned. Jose Licandro Through social networks.
In Argentina, however, they consider that, although the increase was logical in the economic context, it will not last for the long term. The main reason is that June is a historically weight claimant for the payment of bonuses, bonuses and other extras that are based on the local currency, so the increase in demand can counteract the rise in the dollar – or, rather, the decrease in demand in the US currency, favorite for the saving Argentine, above all, in the face of lower performance of fixed deadlines.
Likewise, a better exchange rate for exporters would boost the liquidation flow and would help improve the position of the BCRA for its intervention in the exchange market. That would encourage analysts’ vision of a most competitive exchange rate and more in line with inflation and could relax devaluation pressures.
In any case, it is still expected among analysts that the Dolar blue continue to rise for a few days, so, although it is not yet worrying for Uruguay, Surely the issue is followed closely on this side of the shore of the Río de la Plata.
Source: Ambito
