The downtime for the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union is extended due to political uncertainty in France

The downtime for the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union is extended due to political uncertainty in France

The already very long-standing agreement between the Mercosur and the European Union (EU) seems to be entering a longer parenthesis than expected as a result of the political crisis that the president himself France, Emmanuel Macroncould trigger after the advance of the legislative elections in that country for three years.

Macron, the big loser of Sunday’s European elections, reacted quickly to the historic advance of the far right led by Marine Le Pen with a dissolution of the National Assembly and the call for elections between Sunday, July 30 and July 7.

The unexpected measure was motivated by the results of the elections European Parliament: the extreme party right National Group (RN) He achieved 31.37% of the votes, doubling the strength of the French president. “I trust in the ability of the French people to make the right decision for themselves and for future generations. My only ambition is to be useful to our country, which I love so much,” Macron wrote in X.

The agreement between Mercosur and the European Unionwith more than 20 years of negotiations, was traveling a rocky road due to the new environmental demands of France and entered into a stalemate, this year, with the decision not to resume its discussion until September when the European Comission (EU executive body) had its new authorities. The formation of the new European Parliament will be key to this.

Although the call for early elections – they were scheduled for 2027 – does not affect Macron’s permanence in power, since by law he will complete his term, it plunges the French government into a major uncertainty in which extra-European international politics will not be priority in the coming months.

Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella

The leader of the French far-right, Marine Le Pen, and Jordan Bardella, head of the list for the European Parliament.

Photo: AFP

Added to this is the possible scenario of shared power in France. This means that the president must lead a government of a different political color, depending on how the National Assembly is formed after the legislative elections. In the last 38 years, two presidents were in the same situation that Macro could face: the socialist François Mitterrand (1981-1995) with a conservative government and the conservative Jacques Chirac (1995-2007) with one of the socialist Lionel Jospin.

If the extreme right wins, its candidate for prime minister will be the one who achieved Sunday’s historic victory, the MEP Jordan Bardellabarely 28 years old.

How does the European result affect the processing of the Mercosur-EU agreement?

The new deadline to resume negotiations between the Mercosur and the European Union It is September, when the European Commission has new authorities.

On the way to that schedule, last night’s overall results were good news for the current EC president, Ursula von der Leyenwho would have no difficulty in repeating a five-year term in office, because the advance of the extreme right did not modify the majority held by the traditional right, the social democrats and the centrist liberals in the European Parliament (63%).

However, the decision is in the hands of the bloc’s leaders and with France immersed in a labyrinth of political tension – to which is added the pressure of its powerful farmers – the path of the pact has been muddied with more doubts.

Source: Ambito

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