He International Monetary Fund (IMF) showed chiaroscuros in his projection of the inflation annual in Uruguay for this year and next, marking differences with the forecasts of the government, businessmen and local financial agents.
According to data published by the IMFbased on its World Economic Outlook report and calculations by the agency’s technical staff, Uruguay will close 2024 with a inflation of 5.7%, a value that almost touches the ceiling of the target range proposed by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) of 6%.
The projection of the international organization differs from that of the Macroeconomic Coordination Committee –made up of the BCU and the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF)- which established the annualized figure at 4.9%, the lowest forecast of the different forecasts circulating in the country.
For their part, the businessmen, consulted by the National Statistics Institute (INE) They pointed out last January that the inflation At the end of the year it would remain at 7%, although they have since revised their forecast downwards. The latest survey of Business Expectationsreleased last week, showed 6% for the indicator.
The financial agents, surveyed by the Central Bank, came close to the forecast of the IMFsince in the last Inflation Expectations Survey (May) established a median of 5.5% inflation for the calendar year.
What will happen to inflation in Uruguay in 2025?
With still one semester left before the end of the year, signs are beginning to appear both regionally and globally of an acceleration in inflationalthough far from the values that led the main central banks to apply a harsh restrictive monetary policy post-pandemic.
He IMFwhich in its forecast highlights the success of the central banks’ high rate policies, foresees in Uruguay an annualized inflation of 5.5% next year.
The indicator is more encouraging than that of financial agents, who established a median of 6% for the calendar year of 2025. The businessmen consulted by the INE agree with that forecast.
Meanwhile, the government expects that the price increase at the end of next year will be lower than all the projections mentioned with the inflation standing at 5.3%.
Source: Ambito
