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two inmates with favoritism and an open result, pollsters agree

two inmates with favoritism and an open result, pollsters agree
two inmates with favoritism and an open result, pollsters agree

The heads of the three main polling companies, Eduardo Botinelli by Factum, Mariana Pomies by Figureand Rafael Porzecanski by Option consultants, They presented their conclusions two weeks before the internal election and advanced some projections towards the national election in October at a working breakfast organized by the Association of Marketing Managers (ADM).

On the stage of voting intention heading into the June 30 primaries, there was agreement among analysts regarding a safe and clear distance in favor of Alvaro Delgado inside the National Partya scenario of favoritism for Yamandu Orsi in it Wide Front about Carolina Cosse and an open scenario in the internal red that could favor the candidacy of Andrés Ojeda.

For Porzecanski of Opción there are two competitive internals, but several questions stand out. “Who is going to vote is one of the most important and it is possible that many of those who are going to vote end up making the final turnout election on the same day or a few days before the vote,” he said.

ADM Breakfast Elections 2024.jpg

Eduardo Botinelli (Factum), Mariana Pomiés (Cifra) and Rafael Porzecanski (Opción), together with Jorge Abuchalja, president of ADM.

“The two leaderships in the Frente Amplio and the Colorado Party are outside the margin of error. In the case of the National Party, in addition to being outside the margin of error, the distance is actually very wide to foresee a change in trend between first and second in that case,” he added. “Today the great uncertainty within the National Party is how the formula will be drawn up,” he stated.

The scene towards October

What will be the scenario for the national election in October was also part of the specialists’ analysis.

“Today the Broad Front appears in a better position than it was five years ago and the sum of the coalition parties is having a worse performance than in 2019, but surpassing the Broad Front,” said Bottinelli.

In turn, Pomiés assured that “Cifra sees two halves that are quite even.” “We see the results of the last two elections with a very even definition and without substantial changes in the last five years that have made these things move. To change you have to be very angry or something very strong has to be happening for Uruguayans to make that decision. “I’m not saying the opposition couldn’t win, I’m saying it’s going to be a very difficult match for either half,” he reflected.

“If the government works well anywhere in the world, it has the advantage that people tend to give it another letter of credit. The issue is whether those who do not give you the letter of credit are angry enough to drag others along,” concluded the head of Cifra.

Laura Raffo Alvaro Delgado National Party Uruguay

Photo: Konrad Adenauer Stiftung

A very extensive electoral campaign?

Botinelli surprised with a proposal that went a little beyond the survey data by raising his opinion on the need to “discuss” the length of the Uruguayan electoral cycle and even the not obligatory of the internal election.

“If we look at the Uruguayan electoral cycle, starts with a voluntary choice that decides everything that happens forward. That is a defect because it has a lot to do with participation, with who makes decisions. It is also very long in time, that is, one thing is a mid-term election and another is a cycle that lasts more than a year that produces wear and tear in people. The politicians themselves end up exhausted,” said the director of Factum.

The specialist referred to the percentage of stake that is expected for the next internal election and defined it as a challenge. “In terms compared to the world, it is not that it is much lower than other primary elections, but for what the Uruguayan system is, where everything is mandatory for there to be a participation of around 40%, it is a problem,” he said.

In this regard, Pomiés stated that “a country where around 90% vote, 80% in the mandatory instances and 40% in the optional ones, they are clearly different audiences and that changes the results, without a doubt.”

Regarding the possibility that the parties that have an internal electoral struggle define their formulas On the same night of the election, the director of Cifra considered that “it is important if this formula ends up being effective around October 27.” “This does not mean that not choosing June 30 is a problem in itself. That is, we have had experiences of both types. On the day of the internship, a formula is chosen that later does not work and other formulas that were chosen with more negotiation time that worked very well. The importance is the complementarity they may have,” she analyzed.

Source: Ambito

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