How can the new maximum of the blue dollar in Argentina affect Uruguay?

How can the new maximum of the blue dollar in Argentina affect Uruguay?
How can the new maximum of the blue dollar in Argentina affect Uruguay?

The parallel market ticket of the neighboring country rose again and could affect domestic consumption and revenue.

He Dolar blue reached a new all-time high in Argentina and threatens to reinvigorate the exchange difference with the neighboring country, with a price gap which remains far from historical levels, but increased for the first time in the year.

The rise of the greenback in the Argentine parallel market reactivated the Uruguayan boom crossing borders to realize shopping tourism, a situation that affected the economy during 2023 and sets off alarms for the second semester.

Specifically, the Dolar blue rose 20 Argentine pesos in one day and reached 1,305 Argentine pesos this Tuesday, its historical nominal maximum, according to a survey by Ambit in the caves of the City.

With this new boost, the parallel bill maintains a gap with the official one of 44.2%, which is its highest value since February 1, when it reached 44.5%, days after the president’s government Javier Milei managed to approve the Base Law in the Senate, agree on a new disbursement with the IMF and renew the swap with China. However, the payment of bonuses and advance payments for winter holidays can push the currency upwards.

The impact of the record blue dollar in Uruguay

The scenario experienced in the neighboring country directly impacts different aspects of the Uruguayan economy, that on the one hand can see the fall internal consumption and consequently the VAT collection, while on the other hand it can impact the recovery of the employment that was evident on the coast.

It is worth remembering that the price gap between both countries is at 59%, with the first increase of the year in the last Border Price Indicator (IPF) prepared by the Economic Observatory of the UCU Jump, although with values ​​far from the ceilings recorded between 2021 and 2023.

However, the widening of the gap in the Argentine exchange market is beginning to be felt in departments such as Leap, where the mayor Andres Lima warned that in recent weeks “these queues of cars have been seen crossing into the province of Between rivers”, in reference to Uruguayans who take the opportunity to make purchases in the neighboring country.

However, the government will need to closely monitor the situation in Argentina, because a new uncoupling could lead to the exchange difference grow again and generate problems, mainly on the coast, as happened last year.

Source: Ambito

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