“It was logical, we should not exaggerate: the date is approaching and the crowd is getting nervous,” joked a Frente Amplista militant with several electoral campaigns under his belt, while touring a couple of neighborhoods in Montevideo with your candidate, Yamandu Orsi. The internal Wide Front It is gaining momentum and – despite the joint actions and smiles – some harsher exchanges are beginning to be expressed. “It was never easy to put together the play internally and – especially – afterwards. For me the formula is with both: Orsi-Cosse, Cosse-Orsi,” he remarked, as he arrived at the committee to greet.
However, in Cosse ranks things do not look so simple. “You heard her: she has said that she will be wherever the FA asks her,” said a militant linked directly to the engineer’s campaign. “And what does that mean?” a journalist asked, suspicious. “If the FA says that he should go, he will go as vice; It’s simple,” he replied.
The truth is that Orsi stores do not see Cosse convinced if he gets second place. “What she says is one thing, the tone is another: she is not convinced at all,” stated a leader of the MPP, with some concern. In the FA they fear that the 2019 scenario will be repeated, when Cosse (second in the internal ranks) did not accompany Martinez in the formula and the FA lost. “We can’t make the same mistake… for me the formula should already be cooked,” he added, making the gesture of stirring the pot.
A point of discussion that emerged in recent weeks within the FA is the one linked to the economy, especially to the possible names to head the ministry. “Orsi doesn’t say it expressly, but he has to Gabriel Oddone first on the list,” said an FA economist, at a cocktail party, while attending a presentation by a financial institution. “The problem is that, for some sectors of the FA, he is a neoliberal,” he said with a brief laugh that caused smiles and surprises among his fellow members.
“If that’s the case, it’s not going to be easy,” commented another attendee, while fingering a bruschetta, in two courses. “There will be a lot of internal opposition, right?” asked a communications director who was listening to the dialogue with great interest. “Yes, but there is another matter…” the man responded in a cryptic tone. “The problem is that, everything indicates, this government is going to leave a delicate macroeconomic situation; he fiscal deficit grows, but the economy not much. And the demands at the start of the next government will be almost infinite… how do you do it? ”He asked himself worriedly. “I thought they were the cracks of the fiscal balance. “What happened?”, the FA economist resumed, with an ironic tone.
Plebiscite
There were not as many as they initially seemed, but the signatures collected by the PIT-CNT to promote a plebiscite to reform the Constitution and change the operation of the social security system, will be enough and there will be a call for the October elections. Looking at the political map, the possibility of the plebiscite being approved seems very distant: the entire ruling party and an important part of the opposition have already expressed themselves explicitly against it. However, the Broad Front candidate, Carolina Cosse, has left open the possibility of supporting him and this is worrying. Particularly in the area of Afap, who are deploying a round of consultations from their leaders to various actors, to analyze how the situation is going and see possible scenarios. “The proposal really does not have the slightest basis, but it is quite obvious that, in the short term, there are certain people who could benefit,” one of the Pension Fund Administrators acknowledged. “After the recent reform was approved with an increase in the retirement age, which will be gradual, in the long term, if they give you the possibility of returning the retirement age to 60 years, it could be something attractive for many people . Obviously it would be a disaster for the Uruguayan economy, but it would not be the first time that a popular vote goes against one’s own general interests,” explained this person, who has been in the mixed system from the beginning.
And although it may sound paradoxical, in some groups of the Frente Amplio there is also concern, because – if what is proposed by the PIT-CNT is approved – it would generate stress on state accounts that will be very difficult to manage in the next government, to which they aspire. “I’m honest with you: although we have our disagreement with the reform that promoted Lacalle Pou“We celebrated it behind closed doors: many of those things are what have to be done, and we should have done them if we won,” said one of the economists close to Orsi. “We may have some nuances or different approaches, but it is quite obvious that the social security system as it was was not sustainable and had to be changed. If what is proposed by the PIT-CNT is approved, there is a risk of losing the investor grade and with that a serious financial problem is generated for the Uruguayan State, at a time when the global outlook is not easy, with high interest rates and developed economies with little growth,” he summarized.
The level of rejection of the signatures presented has been very high, much higher than usual. But anyway the signatures are there and the plebiscite will be held. President Lacalle Pou has already said that he will go out to campaign to defend his own reform.
Ojeda
In one of its recent breakfasts, the Association of Marketing Leaders (ADM) convened 3 of the main political scientists of the Uruguayparticularly when targeting polls and analysis of the electoral race. Ignacio Porzecanski (Option), Mariana Pomies (Figure) and Eduardo Bottinelli (Factum), they spoke about the political situation and projections. Everything was as expected, with speculation within each match and the possible scenario in October. At one point Porzecanski surprised by asking, as a question, if Andres Ojeda (who leads the red internal team) is a “new Sartori.” He is relatively new in politics, almost an outsider, he aims for media coverage and sympathy, calling for a vote not very interested in politics, but one who comes with his image, the expert stated.
Indeed, Ojeda is the one who has run the most modern campaign. But to his internal competitor, Gabriel Gurmendezhe did not lack reflexes: he released a photo with Pedro Bordaberry, which was initially understood as the former senator’s support for the candidate. However, Ojeda said he also met with Bordaberry, and that he didn’t think it was right to take a photo. “Gabriel moved quickly,” acknowledged a Colorado militant, who -beyond the episode- remarked that Bordaberry will go to the Senate with his list 10. “He has many friends in the party, in the different pre-candidacies. He did not want to divide by supporting one and not others… but he will be lending his shoulder to the party. It will be fundamental,” said the militant, wearing a red and, above all, black sweatshirt, enthusiastically.
Source: Ambito
