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Economic growth may be lower than expected, warns the Chamber of Commerce

Economic growth may be lower than expected, warns the Chamber of Commerce
Economic growth may be lower than expected, warns the Chamber of Commerce

He growth of the economy could be lower than expected during 2024, after the results recorded in the first quarter, according to the national accounts report of the Chamber of Commerce and Services of Uruguay (Ccsuy).

The rebound of the exports and the private consumption were lower than expected, according to the projections of the Ccsuy, who anticipate “a downward bias,” pointing out that the GDP will grow closer to 3% than the 3.5% expected at the beginning of the year.

By putting the magnifying glass on the placements, the Chamber evaluated that the rebound in the harvest of soy and the highest sales of meat and of forestry sector They will have a positive impact on the accounts, but they have not done so until now.

Regarding this situation, they mentioned “the great tension that persists in the equation of costs, deterioration of profitability and competitiveness of exporting companies. In this regard, the authors of the report anticipated “impacts on the aggregate levels of the economic activity for the current year, but also in terms of employment and investment, already thinking about 2025.

Private consumption

They observed something similar about private consumption, although they highlighted that Consumer confidence index remains in an area of ​​moderate optimism, with the record being one of the highest in recent years for the Uruguayan families, Therefore, they foresee an average growth of more than 2% in household consumption.

Meanwhile, the Chamber indicated that “the electoral climate improves the mood of consumers, also impacting more directly and clearly on the country’s commercial activity,” pointing out that private consumption has a share of more than 60% in aggregate demand.

In that sense, they associated the recovery of retail trade with the correction of the price gap with Argentina and the least diversion of consumption, although this situation raised alarm signals in recent weeks.

The Chamber insists on a multi-sector agreement

Finally, the Ccsuy recalled the Pact for the Homeland which he presented to the political parties and insisted on the need to “achieve higher levels of sustainable growth over time,” for which they indicated that it is key for private companies to “manage to increase their productivity levels.”

Regarding the document that details the 10 main challenges facing the country and for which it proposes working in a coordinated manner between the private and public sectors, they recalled that it is necessary to “lay the foundations to achieve a Uruguay more prosperous.”

By listing the aspects where improvement must be made, the document concluded: “Greater security, combat poverty and marginality, modernization of the State, control of tax burden, training of children and young people, reality of work, greater economic openness (tax and regulatory costs), value creation and innovative work, closing gender gaps, caring for the environment.”

Source: Ambito

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