France: Chance of absolute majority for right-wing populists decreases

The French will be called to the second round of parliamentary elections on Sunday. This is the round of voting that will decide on the distribution of seats.

According to recent polls, the right-wing populist Rassemblement National (RN)’s chances of gaining an absolute majority have recently continued to decline. In an Ifop poll published on Thursday evening, the right-wing nationalists and their allies will win between 210 and 240 seats.

This would make them the strongest force in parliament, but the party of Marine Le Pen and her leading candidate Jordan Bardella would clearly miss the absolute majority.

According to all published polls, the very heterogeneous left-wing alliance of the Left Party, Social Democrats, Greens and Communists, which has come together under the name “New People’s Front”, comes in second place. Forecasts suggest that this alliance will win 150 to 200 seats.

In third place in the polls is President Emmanuel Macron’s liberal center-right alliance, with forecasts of between 95 and 155 seats.

RN Prime Minister even without an absolute majority?

RN party leader and leading candidate Jordan Bardella had originally said that he would only take over the office of prime minister if he won an absolute majority.

In view of the dwindling prospects of a majority, the RN has recently backed away from this announcement. “If we get a majority, then of course we will do what the voters elected us to do,” said Marine Le Pen, the leading politician in the RN. The RN, said Le Pen, could approach other parties if it does not manage to get an absolute majority.

The fact that the RN’s chances of gaining an absolute majority of seats have continued to decline is also due to cross-camp alliances between the left-wing alliance and Macron’s liberal center in several constituencies, which are intended to prevent a victory by RN candidates. In more than 200 constituencies, candidates from the Macron camp or the left-wing alliance have withdrawn so as not to take votes away from the other.

In the first round last Sunday, the Rassemblement National received 33 percent of the vote nationwide, the left-wing alliance 28 percent and Macron’s center camp 20 percent.

The tactics of alliances

In the French majority voting system, a seat in parliament goes to the candidate who comes first in the respective constituency (there are 577 in total).
In the first round of voting, a candidate is elected if he or she receives more than 50 percent (of the votes cast) in the constituency. This was the case in 76 constituencies last Sunday.

In the remaining 501 constituencies, the second round will take place next Sunday. All candidates who received more than 12.5 percent of the votes of eligible voters in the constituency in the first round are allowed to run. Because in the second round it is enough to come first to win, the alliance tactic is used here (see above).