He dollar was trading flat on Monday and cryptocurrencies rose as investors weighed what the attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump could mean for his chances in the 2024 elections and the possible impact on the markets.
After the shooting, investors were adjusting the odds of a Trump victory. In the past, such expectations have strengthened the dollar, as traders have calculated that it would lead to looser fiscal policy and additional trade tariffs.
In turn, the president of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell, He will appear at the Economic Club of Washington on Monday and will likely be asked for his reaction to last week’s weak inflation.
However, the Profits The currency losses in Asia-Pacific trading hours were short-lived, with the market also focused on the outlook for monetary policy. “There is still a long way to go between now and November and a lot of uncertainty about what the Fed will do in the coming months,” said Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank.
Focus on the Fed
Markets are now fully pricing in a rate cut of a quarter of a point by the Federal Reserve in September after data last week showed consumer prices fell on a monthly basis for the first time in four years in June.
“On the one hand, there is a greater likelihood that the Federal Reserve “There is a possibility of a cut in September and, on the other hand, a higher chance of a Trump presidency, suggesting that the interest rate cycle could be quite limited,” added Rabobank’s Foley. “There are these two opposing factors for the dollar in the near term.”
The dollar index, which measures the currency’s performance against six major peers, was up less than 0.1% at 104.10. The euro was little changed at $1.0910 after earlier hitting its highest since March at $1.0921, while sterling was down 0.1% at $1.2979.
The markets are in turmoil
The yields of the US bonds in the long term rose on expectations that a victory by Trump would involve policies that would increase public debt and fuel the inflation.
In USAS&P 500 and Nasdaq futures rose about half a percentage point. The world’s largest fund manager, BlackRock, The stock market began a busy week of earnings with a record $10.65 trillion in assets, sending its shares up 1.2% in pre-market trading.
On the other hand, cryptocurrency prices were advancing, with the Bitcoin rising to about 4% to 62,601. The Ether jumped almost 5% to $3,338.
Meanwhile, European stock markets fell after weak economic data from China helped set a cautious tone, while gloomy updates from British luxury group Burberry and watchmaker Swatch Group raised questions about consumer confidence.
Source: Ambito
