Global electricity demand will rise particularly sharply in 2024 and 2025

Global electricity consumption is rising faster this year and next year than in the past two decades. At the same time, however, the supply of renewable energies is also growing, says the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its current interim report on the global electricity market. Electricity from photovoltaic systems alone is expected to reach new record levels and cover half of the additional demand. However, CO2 emissions will remain high in 2024 and 2025.

The overall increase in demand for electricity is expected IEA driven by a variety of factors, including robust economic growth, extreme heatwaves and the advancement of electricity-powered technologies such as electric vehicles and heat pumps.

The IEAAccording to the forecast, global electricity demand is expected to grow by an average of around 4 percent in 2024, much more than in 2023 with an increase of 2.5 percent. This would be the highest annual growth rate since 2007 – excluding the extraordinary upward movements after the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the energy agency’s current “Electricity Mid-Year Update”. According to the report, the strong increase is expected to continue in 2025, with growth rates again around 4 percent.

At the same time, the supply of renewable energy sources is also growing rapidly this year and next year. Their share of the global electricity supply is expected to rise to 35 percent in 2025 – in 2023 it was 30 percent, according to the information.

The amount of electricity generated from renewables is expected to exceed that from coal for the first time in 2025, the report further states. Photovoltaics alone are expected to cover roughly half of the additional electricity consumption this year and next year. If you add solar and wind power, you get IEA to cover three quarters of the additional demand.

But despite the massive advance of renewables, coal-based energy production is unlikely to decline this year, as demand is growing strongly, especially in China and India, according to the IEA-Report further.

CO2 emissions from the electricity sector are expected to stabilize at a high level – with a slight increase in 2024, followed by a decrease in 2025. The result could be IEA but could also be somewhat better: China’s hydropower production recovered significantly in the first half of the year from its low in 2023. If this upward trend continues in the second half of the year, it could curb coal-based energy production and result in a slight decline in global emissions in the energy sector as early as 2024.

Some of the world’s major economies are currently experiencing IEA a particularly serious increase in electricity consumption – for example, India, which is expected to see a sharp increase of 8 percent this year. The triggers are strong economic activity and massive heat waves. In China, too, electricity demand is expected to increase by more than 6 percent this year due to the robust development of the service sector and some industrial areas.

In the US, electricity consumption is expected to rise 3 percent this year on the back of stable economic growth, rising demand for cooling systems and expanding data processing centers, after declining demand in 2023 amid mild temperatures.

In the European Union, however, electricity consumption is expected to IEA by 1.7 percent, after two years of decline amid the energy crisis.

In many parts of the world, the increasing use of air conditioning will remain “a major driver” of electricity consumption. Many regions were confronted with intense heat waves in the first half of this year, which drove up electricity demand and placed a heavy strain on the power grid, the report further states.

“It is encouraging to see how the share of clean energy in the electricity mix continues to grow, but this would have to happen at a much faster pace to achieve international energy and climate goals,” said the IEADirector for Energy Markets and Security, Keisuke Sadamori, stated in the interim report. At the same time, it is essential to expand and strengthen the networks in order to be able to offer citizens a safe and reliable energy supply – and to achieve higher energy efficiency standards.