Global roof area will grow by up to 52 percent by 2050

Researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg near Vienna have developed a method to estimate the global growth of roof areas by 2050. As they report in the journal “Scientific Data”, the global roof area will grow by up to 52 percent by 2050.

Buildings consumed about 18 percent of the electricity generated annually worldwide in 2019 and contributed 21 percent of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere, the IIASA said. The increasing need for new homes will also increase demand for electricity and building materials.

Potential for solar energy in Africa

The research team led by Siddharth Joshi has developed a machine learning method. It hopes to help with the planning of sustainable energy systems, urban development and climate change mitigation. The system uses big data from 700 million building floor plans, global land cover and information on roads and population. The scientists calculated growth under five socio-economic future scenarios.

According to this model, the current (2020) roof area worldwide is 0.25 million square kilometers, with a built-up area of ​​1.46 million square kilometers. Asia had the largest share with 0.12 million square kilometers of roof area, followed by Europe (0.047), North America (0.039) and Africa (0.02).

By 2050, the global roof area is expected to increase to 0.3 to 0.38 million square kilometers. This corresponds to an increase of 20 to 52 percent. The greatest growth is expected in Africa, where the roof area could double. For the researchers, the most important finding is “that rooftop solar energy has considerable potential for emerging countries.” Joshi: “Our dataset can contribute to more realistic planning of decentralized solar energy systems and promote sustainable energy solutions.”