Private companies surveyed also expect a higher median for the next two years.
Local businessmen expect that the year-on-year inflation will close the year above the projections of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), and they also expect a higher median for the next two years in relation to the latest Expectations Survey managed by the state body.
According to the latest technical bulletin of the “Business Expectations Survey” prepared by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) corresponding to the month of June, the entrepreneurs expect a median Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 6.0% by the end of 2024, above the 5.50% for the calendar year forecast by the BCU’s own survey.
In turn, the businessmen surveyed by the INE expect inflation to remain within the metal range at around 6.0% at least until May 2025, but that it would climb to 6.2% during June 2025 and May 2026.
For its part, the BCU’s EEE estimates a median inflation of 5.74% for the next 12 months and 5.90% for calendar year 2025. Between July 2025 and June 2026, it estimates another 5.90%, still within the target range, and even a decline to 5.64% by December 2026.
Operating costs would increase above inflation
In another order, it is expected that the operating costs increase above inflation during the current calendar year and in subsequent periods.
For the current year, the estimated median operating cost stood at 6.6%, while for the period June 2024 – May 2025 it stood at 7.0%. Between June 2025 and May 2026 it would remain stable at 7.0%.
In June 2024, the effective sample size of the INE survey was 252, which translates into a response rate of around 61.6%.
Source: Ambito
