According to the latest polls, the vice president of the United States and Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, He has overtaken his opponent, Republican former President Donald Trump, in three key states that will be decisive for the presidential elections in November.
The data was revealed by The New York Times and Siena College, as a result of a recent public opinion poll. This opens up a new scenario with Joe Biden’s withdrawal from his candidacy, with Trump recalculating his strategy in the face of Harris’ virtual advantage.
Kamala Harris effect: she surpasses Donald Trump for the first time
According to surveys, Harris leads Trump by 4% in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, That is, 50% to 46% of likely voters in each state. The survey was conducted from August 5 to 9.
The polls, among the first high-quality surveys in those districts since Biden’s withdrawal, come after nearly a year of surveys showing either a tie or a slight lead for Biden over the Democratic incumbent.
Although there are still a few months to go, it seems that the race for the White House has taken a turn and the Republicans have already taken note. With Trump’s anger and annoyance in the mix, there will be a time to recalculate the former president’s strategy.
Analysts agree that this positive boost from Kamala Harris comes from Biden’s resignation, a situation that completely changed the electoral scenario. Reports detail that in these first weeks of the US vice president’s campaign, the Democrats are now in a noticeably stronger position in these three disputed states that have been key to the party’s victories (or defeats).
Even so, Results show vulnerabilities for HarrisVoters prefer Trump on the economy and immigration, issues that remain central to the presidential race.
US Elections: Why Kamala Harris is ahead of Donald Trump
The provisional success of the Democratic Party in the polls reflected by the New York Times is due to the Improving voter perceptions of Harris. Her positive rating has increased the number of registered voters in Pennsylvania by 10% in the last month alone. Voters also view the current vice president as smarter and more temperamentally suited to governing than Trump.
The polls offer an early snapshot of a race that was transformed in just over two weeks. The whirlwind of political change captured the nation’s attention and reinvigorated some voters who approached the Biden-Trump rematch with a deep sense of fear, unease and weariness.
It’s unclear how much of Harris’ surge in the polls is due to heightened excitement surrounding her rise to the top of the ticket, or whether that momentum will last.
Another factor is that candidates gain a few percentage points in the days and weeks after their running mate is announced. Harris announced his selection of the governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz, last Tuesday, as voters responded to this survey.
Even so, There is little doubt that replacing Biden on the ticket has boosted and helped revive Democratic enthusiasm about the election. Among Democrats, voter satisfaction with their choice of candidates has skyrocketed since Harris entered the race, rising 27 percentage points in the three key states since May.
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Reuters
Democrats are now more likely than Republicans to say they are satisfied with their candidate choices, a change from three months ago, when the question was last asked.
On the three battlefields, Harris is in a stronger position than Biden in May with most demographic groups, including white voters without a college degree.
The No. 2 in the administration is doing better with key sectors of the Democratic Party coalition that had begun to erode under Biden, especially Black and younger voters. But she also appears to be holding on to older voters, who were some of the president’s most fervent supporters.
The share of people who said they trusted Harris to handle economic issues was higher than the share Biden received in May, though it is still nine points behind Trump on an issue where the Republican candidate has had the advantage for a long time.
But he has a 24 percentage point lead when it comes to who voters trust to run the show. Abortion, an issue considered one of the strongest for DemocratsIn May, Biden held a 13 percentage point lead on abortion.
Trump’s attacks on Harris as “unintelligent” and “incompetent” have not resonated with most voters. Nearly two-thirds of voters view Harris as intelligent, more than say the same about Trump. Among whites without a college degree, a demographic that tends to favor Republicans, Harris is widely viewed as “smart.”
Kamala Harris’s weak points
42% of voters surveyed said that Harris was too liberal while 37% said the same about Biden last October. In the zoom of the magnifying glass, for the Democratic candidate this boost is a spark of optimism and she knows that there is still a long way to go and that these first moves are not enough to defeat Trump.
Beyond opinions on Trump, polls captured mixed feelings about the Republican running mate, JD VanceShe had a rocky campaign debut after a series of past comments drew renewed scrutiny, including a 2021 claim that the U.S. was being run by “women with cats and no children” like Harris.
In all three states, independent voters view Vance broadly unfavorably: About a third said they were dissatisfied and another 17 percent described themselves as “angry” about his selection. Surprisingly, he receives lukewarm support from a notable number of Republican voters.
In comparison, Walz received higher ratings within his own party. In Pennsylvania, the only state where the poll was conducted entirely after the governor was announced as Harris’s running mate, 48 percent of Democrats said they were enthusiastic about the vice presidential nominee.
Source: Ambito
