The prices of the oil Stocks rose for a fifth straight session on Monday, extending gains from the previous week’s more than 3% advance as U.S. recession fears eased and geopolitical tensions in Middle East supported prices.
During the morning, crude oil futures Brent were up 73 cents, or 0.9 percent, at $80.39 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 88 cents, or 1.2 percent, at $77.72.
“Support comes from better-than-expected US data last week, which eased fears of a recession there,” said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore. “There is also a lot of anxiety about when Iran might avenge the assassination of key US leaders.” Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel. It seems to be a question of when, not if,” he added.
Awaiting the rise of tension in Gaza
Iran and Hezbollah have vowed to retaliate for the killings of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr. “The market is still waiting for Iran’s response,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities research at ING.
The Israeli incursion into Gaza intensified on Saturday with an airstrike on a school compound that killed at least 90 people, according to the Gaza Civil Emergency Service, although Israel said the death toll was inflated. On Sunday, Hamas cast doubt on its participation in new ceasefire negotiations.
The incidence of the United States
He Brent gained 3.7% last week, while WTI rose 4.5%, boosted by economic data and growing hopes for a US interest rate cut.
Three central bankers from USA They said last week that inflation appeared to be cooling enough for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as early as next month.
Consumer prices of China rose faster than expected in July, and weekly U.S. jobless claims fell more than expected last week.
On Monday, Russia evacuated civilians from parts of a second region neighbouring Ukraine after kyiv stepped up its military activity near the border just days after its biggest incursion into Russian sovereign territory since the start of the 2022 war.
OPEC cuts its forecast for oil demand growth
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) On Monday, the US lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024, citing weaker-than-expected data for the first half of the year and softer expectations for China, and also cut its expectations for next year.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report that global oil demand will rise by 2.11 million barrels per day in 2024, down from the 2.25 million bpd growth expected last month.
“This slight revision reflects actual data received for the first quarter of 2024 and in some cases for the second quarter, as well as softening expectations for Chinese oil demand growth in 2024,” OPEC said in the report.
“Despite a slow start to the summer driving season compared to the previous year, transportation fuel demand is expected to remain robust due to healthy road and air mobility,” he added.
This is the first reduction in the forecast of the OPEC for 2024 since it was first made in July 2023. There is a wider than usual split among forecasters on the strength of oil demand growth in 2024 due to differences over China and, more generally, on the pace of the global transition to cleaner fuels.
The reduction still leaves the OPEC at the high end of industry estimates. Oil was flat after the report was released, trading above $80 a barrel. In the report, OPEC also lowered its estimate for demand growth next year to 1.78 million bpd from 1.85 million bpd previously expected.
The OPEC+, The OPEC group, which includes allies such as Russia, has implemented a series of production cuts from late 2022 to support the market. The group agreed on June 2 to extend the latest cut of 2.2 million bpd until the end of September and to phase it out gradually from October.
The International Energy Agency, The IEA, which represents industrialised countries, is forecasting much lower demand growth than OPEC, at 970,000 bpd in 2024. The IEA is also updating its figures this week.
Source: Ambito
