A new poll shows one candidate is more likely to be approved. The parties are accelerating their actions in this regard.
Both plebiscites that will be voted on in the 2024 elections They have different levels of support from the Uruguayans and while the one who drives the PIT-CNT against the social security reform is moving away from its eventual approval, that of the night raids appears to have a slightly more solid chance, according to a survey by Figure.
The initiative of the trade union centre reaps the rewards support of 48% of the population against 29% who are against, while the one who supports the government appears with 62% of approval and a rejection of 27%, according to the survey.
The role of the undecided will be more important in defining the possible repeal of the AFAP, which had 22% in this category, compared to 11% in the other popular consultation, according to the survey carried out by telephone among 1,001 people of voting age.
The plebiscite against the social security reform reduced its support by four points compared to the data from May, but it remains above the levels of the previous months, fluctuating between 36 and 43%. Meanwhile, the positions on night raids seem more solid, beyond the two-point reduction compared to the 64% support it had between April and May.
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The experience of previous plebiscites
Cifra highlighted that in the popular consultations of previous years “only those who previously had a vote were successful explicit majority support”, remembering that others who were “scratching” their way to victory in the polls did not achieve the necessary percentage.
Along these lines, they recalled the failures of the plebiscite on security powered by Jorge Larrañaga in 2019; the one of Pedro Bordaberry about imputability of minors in 2014; and the referendum on the Expiration Law driven by the Broad Front in 2009.
In turn, the survey indicated that these initiatives were driven by “political leaders with high visibility” and compared it to the current situation. The consultation promoted by the PIT-CNT is promoted “by the union movement and some social organizations, and not by the main political leaders,” something that the one of the night raids does have.
Source: Ambito
