The energy trade surplus accelerated to $618 million in Octoberwhich was the third highest figure of the year. Thus, In the first ten months of 2024 the balance improved by more than US$5,000 million compared to the same period in 2023.
The October balance grew compared to the previous month since exports increased by US$817 million and more than offset the monthly increase in imports, which totaled about US$199 million.
It is worth clarifying that the result of the sector is usually more negative for the country in winter since local production is still not enough to satisfy the increase in demand in those months due to low temperatures. On the contrary, In summer it usually improves because consumption decreases and the extraction of hydrocarbons generates an exportable surplus to other countries.
Even so, during this year only in June there was a deficit of US$170 million. Even in said month there was a significant saving in foreign currency compared to the “red” that had been registered in June 2023. The reasons are closely linked to the Vaca Muerta’s thriving activity already construction of the Néstor Kirchner gas pipelinewhich allowed the production of Vaca Muerta to be evacuated to the main consumption centers.
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The quantity effect prevailed over the price effect
Although the energy surplus was US$4,302 million in the accumulated amount of 2024, the foreign exchange savings were even greater, US$5,039 million. By decomposing the variation of the dollar balance, The price effect generated an increase of US$541 million and the quantity effect an increase of US$4,499 million.
In the partial The main contribution of dollars came from the savings generated by lower imports. Due to the lower price of imported energy, US$795 million were saved and due to the lower amount of imported energy, the savings were US$2,728 million. The sum gives the figure to US$3,523 million.
In terms of exports, the greater quantities exported compensated for the lower pricethe effect on the dollar balance being positive at US$1,516 million.
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Despite the contribution of energy, the trade surplus was cut in October
In October, Argentina once again registered a trade surplus, the 11th consecutive. However, the result was cut to $888 milliondue to the increase in imports.
The largest purchases abroad were driven mainly by the acquisition of vehicles, soybeans and ureathe main fertilizer used by agriculture, which requires natural gas as a key input.
On the export side, the largest year-on-year increase was observed since April 2022. The exported products that contributed the most to improving the trade balance compared to a year ago (when there was a deficit of US$442 million) were soybean flour and oil (almost +US$1,000 million), gold (+US$205 million ) and corn (+US$175 million), although improvements in shipments of oil, wheat, meat, peanuts and cars were also highlighted.
Source: Ambito
