The Girlthe meteorological phenomenon that wreaked havoc on Argentine farms just two seasons ago, is the exclusive topic of conversation in all messaging groups among those dedicated to agricultural production. This occurs in the midst of a complex economic situation for producers, who suffer from low prices and high production costs, which entails an even greater need to obtain good yields that will be very difficult to achieve.
Now, Farmers are facing an incipient drought and need rain in the coming weeks to avoid losses in soybean and corn crops. In January, the plants began a period of high demand for water, which for now is not available in the soil and that means that there will be problems in the development of the crops.
The occurrence of this phenomenon – which implies less rain than normal – could be a serious problem for Argentina. In many cases, there are producers who have not yet recovered economically from the three seasons in which there was drought, with special emphasis on the 2022/23 cycle where the impact was so strong that soybean production fell to a historical minimum.
What happens in the core zone?
From the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) they warn that “a month ago the corn of the core region was pointing to a great campaign, with 85% between excellent to very good, however the lack of water gave a negative turn to the situation and the same thing happened with premium soybeans.” As of today, 45% of the corn fields present fair or poor conditions and the rest remain good, but with warning signs if it does not rain.
The corn avoided the leafhopper but was punished by the lack of water
Sowing for grain covers 91.6% of the projected area (+4.5 pp year-on-year), after a week-on-week advance of 4.2 pp. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA), “the crops planted in “Early dates maintain excellent yield prospects in the east of the agricultural region, but plots with intermediate sowing dates present water stress and loss of yield potential.”
The south of the core region is the area most affected by the drought, where all the conditions are between fair to bad. The best corn is in the northwest, there expectations are maintained but they warn that they could only last one more week without water before compromising their performance.
corn leafhopper
Reuters
According to the BCR, “in the north of Buenos Aires the corn panorama is very complex and in many cases, irreversible.” This is a region that had managed to avoid the damage of the leafhopper and decided to plant more cereal, but today has almost 100% of the plots in fair or poor condition.
As for late corn, a critical stage begins with water stress and tight moisture reserves. If there is no significant rain in the coming weeks, yields could fall below 50 to 60 qq/ha.
The soybean campaign will not be what producers imagined
Soybean planting covers 97% of the 18.4 MHa projected for the 2024/25 campaign. At the national level, 87% of what was implemented has a normal to good crop condition, however, a decrease of 4.4 pp was recorded in the water condition between adequate and optimal due to the lack of precipitation, except for Córdoba. , the north of the agricultural area and the southeast of Buenos Aires.
In its report entitled Weekly Agricultural Panorama, The BCBA estimated that “rains will be needed for the critical period to sustain potential yield.” And he warned that “as for second-grade soybeans, the sowing covers 95% and problems are observed regarding achieving the plant stand due to the lack of surface humidity.”
The lack of water conditions normal development and the plants already feel it. The BCR warned that “in the last 20 days, the condition of prime soybeans showed a notable deterioration in the north of Buenos Aires and the extreme south of Santa Fe” and specified that “in the central region, 19% of the lots are in fair to poor condition, 49% are in good condition and only 32% are in very good condition when last year, for this same date, 95% of the lots were between excellent and very good condition favored by the influence of the “Niño” phenomenon.
field harvest soybeans retentions sowing

Depositphotos
No rain and a heat wave in sight
The Rosario Stock Exchange detailed in its latest report that “in the last seven days the rains were lying on the western fringe of the country. The southwest of Córdoba and San Luis received significant accumulations, between 10 and 70 millimeters, with some locally severe storms.”
He added that “for the rest of the Pampas region and the NEA, it has still not rained at least since 2025 began. Water reserves in the soil have fallen significantly, especially in the central east of the Pampas region: the north of Buenos Aires would require rains of 100 to 120 mm to get out of the drought condition.”
The problem of high temperatures lies in the fact that there is a greater demand for water in the crops planted. The Rosario entity estimated that “about 6 to 7 mm are being lost daily but we can go to a loss of 8 to 9 mm. if minimum and maximum temperatures increase, according to the typical conditions of a heat wave.”
The outlook is really complex because the arrival of significant rains until January 20 is ruled out. In addition, minimum temperatures are predicted to go “from the 11 to 17°C, which we had during the week, to values of 20 to 23°C, or even higher starting on Tuesday the 14th, thereby rendering the most important productive region in the country You will have to go through a heat wave without the help of storms.
Source: Ambito