During the first two months of the yearthe Argentine financial market experiences considerable instability, evidenced by a notable increase in country risk and corrections both in the Bonds in dollars as in the S&P Merval. This environment motivates investors to seek more conservative and even strategies, to opt for liquidity in order to preserve capital.
He country risk increase 100 basic points Between January 9 and February 6, which translates into a 18% correction for bonds called dollars; Similarly, the actions that make up the leading index of Argentine stock market and markets (byma)he S&P Merval, They reached a maximum in dollars (CCL) on January 9 and since then they retreated almost 12%. This appears in the panorama the first changes in trends and expectations in portfolios.
Constant fluctuations in the markets, both in Wall Street and in the Buenos Aires Stock Exchangethey turned volatility in the daily rule, and Argentina, despite the stocks, is not exempt from the global sway. In this scenario, some positions were already closed in global bonds and local actions, with the aim of protecting capital and Ensure liquidity for future opportunities.
Catalysts for Argentine assets
And, as explained Pablo Lazzati, CEO of Insider Finance -In dialogue with Scope– The only factors that can change this perspective of the S&P Merval and deepen the country’s loss “They would be comprehensive reforms” Strictly speaking, what the expert refers to is the implementation of a reform Tax and labor. Two promises that the government seems to have forgotten.
According to the strategist, only these two variables could lead to the local market to overcome their historical maximums. In addition, he points out that a new disbursement of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), “at least U $ S17,000 millionnot only would it provide stability, but also injected a higher level of market confidence. “
Portfolio rotation: market trends
Alan Mach CathyCEO of Frontthe First Social Research Platform in Argentina, analyzes that users are increasingly selective when making an investment in shares. And he remembers that for 2024 he almost did not need to be thorough when investing in the local equity, “Because almost the whole market was green, except for a few cases such as Aluar or Ternium, for example, “he says. Something similar to what happened to the Yields in 2023where the CCL effect was decisive.
“We notice this selectivity Not only in portfolio movementsbut also in the social behavior of investors who use front, ”explains MAC Cathy. It happens that the amount of posts within the platform (with analysis, recommendations and alerts on assets) increased 24% Since last December, which states that there is a greater interest in both providing and obtaining information when assembling their New investment strategies For the year that starts.
Thus and with the expectation of a more moderate market in terms of assets of assetsCommon investment funds (FCI) They recover prominence in the retail segment. And as the expert raises, “their diversification and professional management position them as an attractive alternative for those who seek to optimize their portfolio with less exposure to the individual risk of each asset.”
MAC Cathy, believe that this new scenario marks a change in dynamics in investor behaviorwhich pass from a strategy based on coverage in the face of uncertainty to a more structured vision oriented to capital growth.
The portfolios dollarization started
Regarding Bond universeMAC Cathy ensures that the volume grew, But the amount of operations fell in January. “This was due to the fact that many retail users who entered the laundering just now started to invest. This generates a greater amount of operations with upper amounts Au $ s10,000 But the drop in the price, and the momentary roof that these assets found, makes the sovereign debt titles lose attractive and rotate Ons for retail”
For its part, Melina di NapoliWealth Management Product Analyst in Capital Balanzit is clear when pointing out that the constructive vision of the sovereign bonds It is not modified despite the volatility seen in January and what is going on February.
This is because investments in these types of assets are considered long -speaking and, although the agreement with the IMF is probably the next catalyst to enhance the price of Argentine sovereign bonds, for Di Napoli “the news of the macro as the Inflation fact, fiscal surplus, among others, give support to prices. ”
However, he acknowledges that the yield differential Between a corporate bonus (negotiable obligation) and a sovereign bonus in dollars is approximately 4%. This calculates that sovereigns yield 11% on average and corporate between 7% and 8%. And exemplifies: the Global 2035 (GD35) yield 11% per year, while A YPF bonus with expiration 2034 (YM34O), 8% per year ”.
In that sense, slide the strategist, For investors who have taken advantage of the 2024 rally And seek to reduce volatility in their investment portfolios, “It seems that it makes sense to rotate part of the holdings in sovereign debt to corporate bonds and enjoy the accrual of interest offered by the credits of high -qualification Argentine companies. ”
How do you anticipate 2025 in the world of finance?
MAC Cathy anticipates that the economic context could boost more retail savers to make the leap towards the investment of their income. The expert discounts that the recovery of private salary and Inflation deceleration would reduce the need to resort exclusively to the MEP dollar As a protection mechanism, which opens the door to new strategies to protect and grow capital.
“If a scenario of greater macroeconomic stabilityincentives to mobilize the accumulated dollars in recent years will be stronger, ”concludes the expert.
Di Napoli coincides and remembers that the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputoemphasized in an interview that the IMF financing would serve to recapitize the BCRA, but ultimately, “the stock of the stocks will be linked to the fulfillment of all the necessary conditions, which include lower inflation and the elimination of the remaining monetary surplus.” So it maintains a positive vision as far as it arrives to an agreement in the short term.
The trend is clear. Given volatility, there is greater interest among investors for corporate bonds and common investment funds (FCI) as alternatives to reduce risk exposure. Neverthelessalthough the current panorama is challengingthere is some optimism regarding a future with greater macroeconomic stability, which could encourage savers to explore New strategies beyond the dollar. In short, the Argentine market is in full transition, so prudence and adaptation to global conditions will be essential to capitalize on the opportunities that arise in the medium and long term.
Source: Ambito
