For the government, the null acceptance that Lelink had was due to low performance compared to other market instruments. For analysts, there may be a devaluation after the elections.
Sometimes them Market bets against an economic scenario do not respond to reasonableness criteria which can be economists and officials. This would be the case of the result of the last tender of treasure bonds carried out by the National Government.
Apparently, For the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, and for the Secretary of Finance, Pablo Quirno, the null acceptance that had the letter tied to the dollar Linked in the last call for tender this Wednesday is proof that there is no exchange delay, which is the issue of debate of the last weeks among opposition economists and professionals who are ideologically closer to the government.
“We offered a dollar link for those who saw exchange delay, but had no demand ”, Caputo said through the X Network. Quirno, meanwhile, said: “We offered a linked dollar to January 2026 and almost no one came (we awarded 80,000 sticks pesos to devaluation +5%). One thing is those who think, another the market “.
But what may have happened is that potential investors They did not buy the bonus simply because it did not offer yields that other similar instruments are offering. In other words, the potential “Carry Trade” that made available to the markets is so low that it was not worth it. This follows that this Lelink has been included to be rejected and thus add more arguments to the official position
The explanation of Personal investments (PPI) is that the instrument was issued at a rate equivalent to the “more devaluation of 5% internal return rate (IRR), which is significantly low compared to comparable sovereigns.” “As a result, the ‘Carry Trade’ offered is quite reduced against the other alternatives in pesos. In this context, market participants anticipated yields closer to 7-8%, ”explains the ALYC.
Opinions of financiers and economists
Ariel Sbdar, CEO of Capital Capos, He said that “There was no demand for the Government’s Linked Dollar Bonus. No one, zero, null. This means that all those who talked about devaluation at the end was just peak. No one put a handle betting devaluation, ”the financier performed.
Aldo Abram, director of the Freedom and Progress Foundation, He held on his side: “There is a saying in finance: I put your money where you put your words. So many analysts and economists talking about a great exchange delay, great devaluation and failure of the plan; But the demand for bonds that update per dollar had low demand. They seem that they and their clients lost a negotiation. ”
You have to look at the future dollar
The consultant Labour, Capital & Grouth (LCG) He pointed out in a recent report that according to the last survey of market expectations (REM) of the Central Bank “The depreciation expectation of the official dollar was accentuated in the last three months of the year, which implies that the market is discounting that any exchange adjustment (perhaps within the framework of an agreement with the IMF) will occur once the mid -term elections have been made ”. “As we have indicated in previous reports, that remains the most likely scenario for LCG,” says the consultant.
Source: Ambito
