Despite the political tensions within the government coalition, and with the BCRA’s reserves at the limit, the market remains cautiously optimistic regarding the negotiations in Congress -which must endorse the pre-agreement with the Fund-, something that has been reflected for more than two weeks in the decline in dollar stock prices.
In that sense, The CCL dollar falls this Wednesday 0.3% (61 cents) to $212, for which the gap with the official falls to 98.9%, the lowest since January 18. Thus, since the Government communicated the principle of agreement with the IMF, the price of the so-called “cable dollar” it collapsed 9% (-$21.17).
For its part, the MEP dollar or “Stock Exchange” fell 0.1% (14 cents) to $205.35 (spread of 93%(. From January 28, exhibits a decline of 7.5% (-$16.70).
Regarding the next steps of the “novel” with the IMF, the Minister of Economy Martin Guzman said this Wednesday that it will be sent to parliament the project according to its “annexes that will contain all the documents” and “details”. Let us remember that in addition to legislative approval, the understanding must be endorsed by the board of directors of the international credit organization, which met this Wednesday to evaluate the progress of the negotiations with Argentina.
The Argentine government must face a due date with the IMF in March for some 2,900 million dollars and another 2,000 million with the Paris Club, at a time when the BCRA does not have the necessary liquid reserves.
In the external context, meanwhile, tensions in Ukraine despite Moscow’s insistence that it was withdrawing troops and US Federal Reserve minutes kept investors’ attention.
Against this, the Argentine country risk fell 29 units, to 1,734 basis points, compared to a historical maximum level of 1,969 units recorded at the end of January.
official dollar
In the official exchange market, the wholesale dollar appreciated 11 cents to $106.58, under the liquidity regulation imposed by the BCRA.
The monetary authority ended the day with a positive balance of about US$5 million in the foreign exchange market, which chained 11 consecutive days without net sales. Throughout February, it accumulates net purchases for almost US$100 million.
“The acceleration of the crawling-peg continues to arouse expectations, given that it is not only positive to avoid continuing to incubate backwardness in the face of inflation, but it would also be accompanied by an upcoming rate hike on the way to positive real yields”argued an economist.
Meanwhile, inflation accelerated to 3.9% in January, registering a rise of 50.7% in the last twelve months, at a time when the market expects a prompt rate hike by the Central Bank.
“With the expected adjustments in some regulated prices, as well as in other seasonal prices, our expectations point to a higher dynamics in the national CPI in February and March, anticipating a rise of more than 4% per month,” Cohen projected.
For its part, the savings dollar or solidarity dollar -retail plus taxes- rises seven cents to settle at $185.15 on average.
The blue dollar is stable at $215, according to a survey carried out by Ámbito in the Foreign Exchange Black Market. In this way, it accumulates its fifth day without registering increases.
Even so, the informal dollar is still the most expensive exchange rate in the market since the CCL falls again.
The spread between the blue and the wholesale exchange rate, which is directly regulated by the Central Bank, falls to 101.3%, the lowest since January 17, due to the acceleration in the rate of devaluation of the official, and the greater calm that the parallel has been exhibiting after the announcement of understanding with the Fund.
Source: Ambito
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