At the same time, the economist “did not put his hands on the fire” that before the end of the year the blue will hit the jump due to the obvious delay in the exchange rate compared to inflation: “we cannot rule out a rapid recovery of prices and that the rise does not stop at $330, reaching a price close to $400 by the end of the year”.
“There was a historical drop of 10% in sales in food companies, 15% in restaurants and 10% in warehouse. The situation is complicated. There is no doubt that the sinking of the blue speaks of lack of money in the street“, he emphasized Di Stefano, by accounting for the systemic problem that affects the decline of the parallel dollar.
The economist Juan Pablo Albornoz argued that if “we look at the movie of the blue dollar adjusted for inflation throughout the current stocks, today we are more than 16% below the average (if we take into account US inflation, that percentage is approximately the This implies that the dollar is getting cheaper compared to the rest of the goods and services in the economy.”
Until when can the exchange pax be extended?
For the moment, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economy continue to seduce investors through rates that allow, for example, fixed terms, to match or slightly beat inflation. Therefore, a new rise this month is not ruled out and thus avoid the incentive towards the dollarization of portfolios.
On the other hand, economists remain quite hesitant about the possibility of the blue rallying. Due to seasonality, at the end of November and December there are usually more pesos on the street for the payment of bonuses and year-end bonuses. But the balance will be even: also due to seasonality, summer vacations for those who buy a parallel dollar to travel abroad, may be a factor to take into account in terms of price.
The latest Econviews report was blunt about the exchange market after the new dollar for tourists: “For those who expect a lot in the exchange market, they should wait sitting down. It may help to reduce the gap in the margin with respect to the MEP and push up the blue dollar, although none immediately”.
As for inflation, although the Government expects November to mark a floor of 6%, like any other price in the economy, the dollar should rise. But nothing is given: the parallel has shown that it was far behind inflation (advances $81 after closing 2021 at $208) this year, something different from what happened in 2020 when it showed a sharp jump of 111% (vs. at 36% inflation.
Two other points to take into account have to do with the debt in pesos and the dollarization of portfolios prior to the elections. The Government is having a hard time achieving successful tenders without giving rates that are difficult to reject with placement deadlines until 2024. This Monday, Finance will seek to test the market in that regard, with bonds tied to a fixed rate and to the dollar.
Finally, the dollarization of portfolios prior to elections is a fact. The question is, when will it happen? With these dollar prices, “almost a bargain”, it is likely that there will be a slow start this month and December to see greater demand.
A recent report by Facimex Valores states that “it is again attractive to tactically increase the dollarization of portfolios”after an October of exchange rate stability and a narrowing gap.
“The implicit exchange rate in financial assets has been appreciating strongly in real terms and is currently well below the average of recent years. It is an attractive entry point, especially considering that the peso market is showing signs of stress and the implicit exchange rate lagged behind the growth of the nominal variables of the economy, in a context in which the continuity of the financial program will show more indirect monetary issue”, reported Facimex.
Source: Ambito
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