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Financial dollar down $5 and the gap fell to 7-month lows: what does the market fear with this pullback?

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At the same time, the MEP dollar fell $2.74 (-0.8%) to $327.17, marking a spread with the official 81.7%. A) Yes, The so-called Stock Market dollar closed for the first time below the tourist or card dollar ($328.51, retailer plus 30% of the COUNTRY Tax, and a perception of 45% deductible from Income Tax and Personal Assets for consumption with cards abroad of up to US$300 per month).

The exception of the day was in the parallel market, where the Dolar blue raised $1 to to $356 (seems to be on its way to its high of $359 on December 28)according to a survey of Ambit in caves of the City of Buenos Aires. Thus, he marked a breach 97.1% with the official exchange rate.

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In the market, some operators link the sharp and continuous drop in stock exchange rates to a repeated official intervention, while others mention a greater weight of the offer, as a result of “some liberties” so that certain companies that should liquidate through the Single and Free Exchange Market (MULC), do so through the Stock Exchange to receive a higher exchange rate. “We deduce it from the movement that the market makes,” they argue.

Secondly, the better financial climate for Argentine assets, along with positive real rates (the BCRA is expected to maintain the nominal annual rate at 75%, after knowing the inflation data this Thursday), also do their part and contribute to the weakness of financial dollars, add.

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In any case, the market does not rule out a “next rearrangement” of these exchange rates, pointing towards the blue, in order to avoid an accentuated accumulated delay. So far this year, the CCL falls $10.10 (-2.9%), from $344.13 at the end of December.

Pablo Repetto, Head of Research at Aurum Valores warned Ambit that the fall of financial dollars can be “A bit detrimental thinking about the placement of debt in pesos, because to the extent that investors appreciate that the CCL and MEP are relatively cheap, the risk that they will jump at some point begins to become more and more palpable.”

For the analyst, if this scenario for financial exchange rates continues, many investors will begin to wonder whether or not it is really convenient for them to sell dollars to enter the next auctions. “Such a marked stability of the CCL or even if it persists in decline will conspire against the need for the Treasury to issue debt in pesos or achieve high rollovers,” alerted.

Meanwhile, in the official market, the Central Bank (BCRA) remains undefeated in 2023: this Monday it accumulated its fourteenth consecutive day without net sales, ending with a positive balance of about US$3 million, one day after formalizing with his counterpart from China the expansion of a “swap” or currency exchange for a total of some 20,000 million dollars, which will allow an increase in Argentina’s international reserves at a time when the country is in need of foreign currency.

“We must build a path that will lead us to a regime of exchange normalization and direct access to the capital market”, affirmed the Minister of Economy Sergio Massa in an interview published on Sunday by the newspaper Perfil. The official added that the growth target for 2023 will be more than 3%, against the slightly above 5% expected for 2022.

“The first days of the year began with a successful debt swap in Treasury pesos for instruments with maturities in January, February and March,” IEB Research said. “Although it is undeniable that some air is achieved for the coming months, we are concerned that the operation does not manage to extend ‘duration’ beyond September, with which this Tetris game ends up managing to concentrate between April and September about 11 billion pesos, equivalent to little more than two monetary bases,” he added.

Price of the dollar in the world and in Brazil, Monday, January 9, 2023

In the world, meanwhile, The dollar fell amid traders’ expectations that the latest US economic data will prompt the Federal Reserve to slow its rate hikes. Relevant US economic data to be released later in the week could offer further signals about the Fed’s next steps. The dollar index fell 1%, while benchmark Treasury yields neared their level. lowest in almost two weeks.

In Brazil, the real lost just 0.4% to 5.2594 to the dollar, a day after supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed the country’s capital, Brasilia, and occupied the headquarters of Congress, the Supreme Court and The presidency. Security forces retook control of the three buildings hours after what was billed as the worst attack on state institutions in Brazil since its return to democracy in the 1980s.

Qatar dollar price, Monday, January 9, 2023

The new qatar dollar -which includes 30% of the COUNTRY tax, 45% deductible from Income Tax and Personal Property TaxY a new perception of 25% on account of Personal Assets- advanced $2.22 and finished in $375.44.

This exchange rate applies to Consumption abroad with debit and credit cards over US$300 per month.

Price of the tourist dollar or card dollar, Monday, January 9, 2023

The tourist dollar or card -retailer plus COUNTRY Tax, and a perception of 45% deductible from Income Tax and Personal Assets for consumption with cards abroad of up to US$300 per month- rose $1.94 and it was offered for $328.51.

Savings dollar price, Monday, January 9, 2023

The dollar savings or solidarity dollar-which includes 30% of the tax COUNTRY and 35% deductible from Income Tax and Personal Assets- advanced $1.83 Y traded at $309.74.

Price of the wholesale dollar, Monday, January 9, 2023

The wholesale dollar, that directly regulates the BCRA, it rose 84 cents and ended at $180.09.

Price of the crypto dollar, Monday, January 9, 2023

The crypto dollar or Bitcoin dollar yields 0.2% until the $337.15, based on the average among local exchanges reported by Coinmonitor.

Source: Ambito

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