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Wednesday, March 22, 2023

City Guru anticipates an “imminent rise” of the dollar

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But in addition, there are other factors that the market watches closely that anticipate a rise in the dollar. For example, the dynamics of reserves and the expectation of new measures to contain the exchange rate, something that is already taken for granted. The prospects “are worrying, because the harvest projections continue to worsen due to the lack of rain, and the Government does not have much room to tighten imports without further cooling the economy (…) With a BCRA without reserves, we believe that the The government will end up adjusting the stocks even more and implementing temporary exchange schemes such as the ‘soybean dollar,'” said Isaías Marini from Econviews.

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“The nominality of the economy seems to be aligned around 6% (of monthly inflation), currently, the rate of the 28-day ‘Leliq’ (letters) is equivalent to 6.2% in terms of monthly effective rate (TEM) while that the BCRA accelerated the devaluation rate to the 6% zone in the first rounds of February”, commented Tobías Pejkovich of Facimex Valores.

“Now clearly the risk of the projection (in the BCRA rate) is upwards and not downwards”said Alejandro Giacoia of EconViews. “The demand for money usually falls in February and March, which is why it would not be good if the rate also discourages the (use of the) peso as savings,” he stated.

The gap that oscillates around 90% also generates a pressure factor. However, economists affirm that expectations will align according to the electoral result. If the result of the STEP generates confidence, a drop in financial dollars is not ruled out. But in the meantime, with a Qatari dollar above $400 it’s hard to think that the dollars will stay put.

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Source: Ambito

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