Argentine ADRs rise up to 5.5% on Wall Street; dollar bonds extend recovery

In Wall Street, the ADRs operate with the majority of increases, led by Cresud (+5.5%), IRSA (+3.4%), Ternium (+3%); Globant (+2.9%); View (+2.9%); Pampa Energía (+1.8%) and Telecom (+1.8%). On the contrary, they descend Black Hill (-1.4%); Transportadora de Gas del Sur (-0.9%); and Bioceres (-0.6%).

In the Buenos Aires stock market, meanwhile, the S&P Merval it rises 0.6% to 249,820 units, after falling 0.2% over the past week.

“The Merval, after rising more than 200% in less than a year (since the end of June 2022), It is in a zone of uncertainty. The local stock market index has been lateralizing for more than a month and finding a maximum value of 260,000 points,” said Mauro Natalucci from Rava Bursátil. However, the minimum values ​​are rising, so everything would indicate a continuation of the upward trend in the market. “, he added.

A source told Reuters that Discussions to change the Central Bank’s (BCRA) net reserve targets are precautionary, as the country met its reserve targets by the end of December 2022.

“The start of the year was so bad that the goals with the IMF would be ‘flexible’ in order to be met. In other words, there is no program that aims to correct the imbalances, but rather the goals are accommodated to the government’s needs – so as not to make an adjustment prior to the elections– and the IMF itself – so as not to trigger a crisis in Argentina and avoid default–”, they said from Cohen.

The Government agreed with the IMF that the net reserves increase by 5,500 million dollars at the end of March and 9,800 million dollars at the end of the year. Net reserves are currently around 4.4 billion dollars, according to a private estimate.

Roberto Geretto, from Fundcorp, pointed out for his part that “The primary deficit for the month of January is the largest in 10 years, where it is usually a seasonally surplus month. This raises doubts about the capacity and willingness to meet the primary deficit target of 1.9% for this year.” “If it is not met, it will be important to see how much the deviation is and if the new reserve goal saves a waiver or there will be a double default,” he pointed.

In the external context, traders now expect the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to around 5.4% by the summer.

Bonds and country risk

In the fixed income segment, sovereign bonds in dollars They rise to 4% thanks to Bonar 2029, Global 2046 (2.7%), Bonar 2030 (2.6%) and Bonar 2038 (2.5%). Meanwhile, the Global 2038 and the Bonar 2041 fell to -1.4% and the Bonar 2035 -0.4%.

Thus, the risk country measured by JPMorgan, it remains close to 2,000 basis points, fall 0.1% to 1,995 basis points.

“The fixed-income market suffers from Argentine instability in the short term and the yields of public securities continue at high values,” said Natalucci, from Rava Bursátil.