Dollarize the portfolio? bet on instruments in pesos? Looking for the highest profitability or taking care of the investment of volatility? Questions that any reader of this medium could ask themselves. It is because of that Ambit talked with four specialists who analyzed both the local and international situations to glimpse the best strategy for the election year and the complex external panorama. Negotiable Obligations, sovereign bonds, Cedears, ETF, Bills, etc. were some of the options according to the profiles and needs of the investors.
Lucas Yatche, head of strategy and investments at Liebre Capitalsaid that the broker’s strategy is “be mostly dollarized in most portfolios”because: “We see a certain delay in the Cash with Liquidation dollar; both against inflation and with the broad monetary base that does not stop growing. This happens in a context where the gap is very low, in the midst of regulations and the stocks are growing. At the same time, there are low reserves and drought, so the supply of dollars will be scarce.”
That’s why, Yatche said, “Knowing that there is going to be volatility in the middle, we aim that Cash with Liqui will have more travel”For this reason, “we seek to dollarize both in moderate and aggressive portfolios.” In the moderate has a majority of Negotiable Obligations and in the most aggressive, it seeks to add Sovereign bondsafter the recent parity adjustment.
That is why, in this moderate line, the portfolio is made up of “85% of ON of Irsa, Pampa Energía, and Geneiaand 15% with sovereign bonds such as G38which is the most defensive bond in this context”. The most aggressive portfolio, meanwhile, has 65% ONs, 20% sovereign bonds and 15% ETFs, focusing on the Nasdaq and Dow Jones.
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Emilse Córdoba, director of Bell Bursátilin dialogue with Ambit assured that in a context that is as convulsed as it is unstable at the local level and dynamic at the international level, It is perhaps a good opportunity to look a little more outside and that, depending on the profile of each investor, are the investment options you choose.
If we start the analysis in the international arena, assured Córdoba, “a good investment option is technology companies, which they can access from the local market through the cedears“. Some of the ones he mentioned are: Google, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Amazon and Mercado Libre.
In this regard, he recommended these assets for “a profile a little more conservative in the medium and long term. These companies “accumulate significant falls, and we can think about their recovery in those terms,” he added.
The companies linked to the energy and oil companiesboth local and international, also through the purchase of Cedears, are “a good investment if we think about them in the medium term,” added Córdoba. Papers such as YPF, Pampa Energía, Transportadora Gas del Sur y del Norte, for the local ones, and Vista, for the international ones. At the local level, “assets will suffer political vicissitudes, but let’s think in terms beyond the upcoming elections,” she analyzed.
If it is decided to increase the risk a little more, “I like national bonds in foreign law dollars, such as the GD30, GD38. That, with the losses they have suffered, profit taking and political speculation, they are good assets and are at low prices. We could wait a few more days, waiting for one more drop.” And finally, for the most risky and active in their portfolios, “a local asset that cannot be missing if you like adrenaline (in a limited portion of the portfolio) is the Galician Financial Group (GGAL)“.
Diego Martínez Burzado, Head of Research & Strategy at Inviuin chat with Ambitwas of the opinion that for that investor who has a conservative profilethe two main flagella are: the loss of purchasing power of your savings and the eventual depreciation of the currency (that is, it yields less in dollars). “They are two logical concerns in a context where inflation is accelerated in Argentina and there is a shortage of dollars,” she expanded.
“The two issues will accompany us throughout 2023 with the additional political seasoning that exacerbates many of these variables,” Burzado analyzed the context of the coming months.
“The recent short-term debt swap for the year 2024/2025, at least improves the profile of what the Argentine Treasury bills, adjusted for inflationthose letters are yielding between 3 and 4% above annual inflation and we have maturities in May and June, therefore It is a good first instrument to invest there and protect the pesos”.
For the dollar portion, he recommended Negotiable Obligations that pay between 7 and 9% annually and can be purchased individually or through a Common Investment Fund. “Then for the next few months, for what is March and April the fixed rate can be a good alternative to maintain purchasing power. The rates are at an effective annual rate above 115%, therefore March and April can be a good alternative for that portfolio. very conservative and low risk“, broad.
For the riskiest portfolio, there is the so-called “electoral trade” what is this? “Argentine assets that have a lot of risk may have a good performance depending on the change in political expectations towards the end of the year. There, the main decision that one has to make is whether to take public risk or private risk,” Burzado explained. In the latter case, the shares are those that may be giving the most value, shares in the oil sector or the port energy sector, such as Central Puerto, Vista Company, YPF, Transportadora Gas del Sur or Transportadora Gas del Norteand Transener.
If one opts for public risk, he mentioned dollar bonds as the AL30, the Global 2030 Argentine Law or the Global 2035 Foreign Law. “Obviously assuming they are risk bets and considering the economic imbalances that exist in Argentina, our vision is that it does not make much sense to restructure the debt in dollars nor will it happen in at least the next few months or during this year,” he explained.
Finally, those who want to invest in foreign titles and diversify their positions can invest in cedears, and opined that as “international markets continue to be volatile, this is going to give entry opportunities.” In this regard, he mentioned alphabet either PayPal . He also recommended the Cedear XLE ETF that brings together the main oil companies in the world. It should be noted that these last options are for profile most associated with risk.
In his latest report “PPI Argentina Portfolios” for March, two options were put together. In the “conservative” it was recommended to diversify as follows: corporate bonds in dollars 40%, provincial bonds in dollars another 40%, bonds in pesos 10%, and finally sovereign bonds in dollars another 10%.
This portfolio is “in accordance with a profile that seeks less volatility in its exposure to the country. Logically, it is more defensive in a negative scenario and considers prioritizing good credits.” In the “aggressive”Instead, priority was given to “seeking greater exposure to more volatile instruments, but with higher potential upside in the event of a constructive/optimistic scenario going forward.”
The recommendation was provincial bonds in dollars 35%, shares and Cedears 30%, sovereign bonds in dollars 25% and bonds in pesos 10%.
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