April closed marked by the volatility of the dollar and the uncertainty generated as the presidential elections begin to approach. The month was crossed by the consequences of the drought that left the Central Bank (BCRA) with few tools to maneuver in the midst of the currency run and being forced to negotiate with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to make the goals more flexible. However, in this difficult context, April ended up being positive for the local financial market and for those who chose to invest in dollars.
The big winner: the Merval
The recent downward momentum was not enough to offset the gains of the Merval, which registered a positive variation of 18.90% in April to reach the level of 292,188 units. On the other hand, if the performance of the Merval is taken into account, measuring its variation with respect to the financial dollar known as cash with settlement (CCL), it has risen 5.34% in April, closing the month at 638 points, he said. Maximiliano Donzelli, Head of Research at IOL invert online.
For its part, GMA Capital indicated that investors who bet on the shares were the ones who were best able to weather the currency turmoil in April, posting earnings from 13% real over inflation and almost 6% in dollarsaccording to estimates by the consultancy GMA Capital.
“April left its mark as the most turbulent month so far in 2023. The recent rise in financial dollars made a dent in the yields of Argentine assets. Only shares allowed positive returns in dollars (5.9%)”GMA Capital noted.
“The only type of asset that in Argentina posted gains in dollars were shares: the S&P Merval accumulated a return of 46.9% in pesos and 10% in hard currency (at the CCL exchange rate)”the study stressed.
Going on to analyze the performance in pesos of Argentine assets, the best companies in the local market during this month were Transportadora Gas del Norte (TGNO4), which registered a resounding rise of 40.2%, followed by Aluar (ALUA) with a rise of 39.1%, while the podium was closed by Ternium (TXAR) with a growth of 37, 4%.
In all three cases, the shares of these companies have shown strength despite the political and economic noise, beating the rise of the CCL dollar in April, which was 12.3%.
Other instruments in pesos and dollars
From GMA they highlighted that although the “Dollar-Linked and Duals were in high demand in this context and gave nominal returns of 8.6% and 8.1% respectively, they failed to surpass the rhythm of the Cash with Liquidation”.
It also indicates that “inflation-indexed or fixed-rate instruments lagged even further behind” and says that “in the midst of the volatility, bonds in dollars were among the most affected: Bonares lost 17% in hard currency and Globals 14.4%.”
Turning now to talk about Argentine fixed income, in this case, the uncertainty with the exchange rate has had a very negative impact on the prices of the titles, according to IOL investoronline.
The sovereign dollar bonds they had a negative reaction in the market and operated with strong losses in the fourth month of the year, with an average fall of 15% in dollars.
It should be noted that this fall in the parities of Argentine bonds was in the opposite direction to the movement of other emerging bonds with the same international rating.
For their part, the CER bonds they had an average return of 7.1% in pesos, a percentage that, in this case, was below the expected inflation for the fourth month of the year, which is estimated to be above what was 7.7 % of the previous month.
Dollar vs fixed term
On the other hand, from GMA they emphasize that there was an “accumulated inflation in the year that reached 25.4%” and that, “both the official dollar and the fixed terms, they moved quite in line with that variable since the first marked an increase of 25.3% in pesos, while the second remunerated 24.9%”.
Those who bet on parallel dollars beat inflation. In the case of the blue, in April it rose 18.73% (+$75), the same for those who buy the dollar MEP 12.08% (+$47.99) and the CCL 11.49% (+$46.72).
Source: Ambito
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