The financial dollar suffered this Tuesday, May 2, its most important daily fall in nine months and pierced $430 in the case of the MEP and $435 in the case of the “Cash with liquidation” (CCL).after the new regulations of the National Securities Commission (CNV) that they reduced the operations of bonds in pesos with settlement in foreign currencies with the purpose of decompressing the pressures on the alternative exchange markets. It was on another day in which the Central Bank gave up reserves again, due to lower income from the agricultural dollar and strong payments for energy imports.
In the Buenos Aires stock market, the dollar Cash with Settlement (CCL) -operated with the GD30 bond in the Price-Time Priority (PPT) segment- it gave up $19.62 (-4.3%) to $433.64, its lowest value in almost two weeks. Indeed, the gap with the official wholesale exchange rate it dropped to 93%, from 103.6% on Friday.
At the same time, the dollar bag -operated with the GD30 in the PPT segment- it sank $16.52 (-3.7%) and closed at $428.84. Thus, the exchange gap narrowed to 90.9% from 100% the previous day.
Compared with inflation, both the CCL and the MEP once again accumulated falls in real terms. The first rises in 2023 by 26%, while the second increases by 30.8%.
However, with the new exchange restrictions, alternative businesses streamlined the one that is carried out bilaterally between private parties (Senebi) without this operation being registered on the electronic screens. Market sources indicated that in that market the MEP -with the GD30- dropped $3 on average to $440, while the CCL -with the GD30- it was up $12 on average to $457.
“The CNV ordered on Monday (General Resolution No. 959) two measures that would refer to the operation of Senebi with regard to the price of the so-called financial dollars. The PPT market would lose depth with the measures provided, which in turn would generate divergences in the prices of financial dollars according to the different markets and species,” They pointed out from Delphos Investment.
The measure provided by the NVC was adopted through the general resolution 959/2023arranged new limits for the operations of buying and selling of dollars financialthat They cannot be made if there is a debit bond, both in pesos and in dollars. “We continue working to strengthen financial stability and the development of the domestic capital market. Reducing the volatility of financial variables is one of the central objectives,” said the Finance Secretary, Eduardo Setti.
“The ‘MEP’ dollar may be quiet, but the ‘blue’ dollar will remain hot, and will be the supreme among the existing dollar families in the market”said analyst Salvador Distéfano. He estimated that “It is necessary to wait for the agreement reached by the Government with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), if it advances or not funds, if it achieves a change in the fiscal goals, and what expectation of reserves it has to achieve in the future.”
“The regulatory changes (…) make investors once again pay close attention to what happens with the Bonares and Globals in general, and with the AL30 and GD30 titles in particular, as these are the most used for exchange operations”, the StoneX brokerage stated.
Officials of the Ministry of Economy are in the United States to rnegotiate the current goals in a credit agreement for some 44,000 million dollars granted a year ago.
Under this scenario, The Central Bank (BCRA) ended the day with sales for some 133 million dollars to meet market demand. In April, the BCRA was only able to buy some 40 million dollars from the market in favor of its coffers despite the validity of a special exchange rate for agro-exporters.
“With gross reserves at minimums of more than 6 years, the government seeks to stop suffering from dripping foreign currency in bond operations. The CNV resolution seeks to reduce the purchase of foreign currency against surety in order to moderate volumes operated and contain free dollars” , analyzed an operator.
After the jump in the parallel exchange rates in April (almost 19% rise), with the blue close to $500 last Tuesday, the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank used all the tools at their disposal to stop the run against the peso : market operations with bonds and reserves -the IMF was notified-, sale of futures, acceleration of the crawling peg (controlled acceleration of the devaluation), an adjustment of 1,000 basic points of the interest rate (at 91% TNA), to which were added the recent provisions of the CNV. “The effectiveness of the measures will be seen over the days, although the fate of inflation in the coming months seems to be cast”analyzed GMA Capital.
In the official dollar market, the BCRA ended the round with a net selling balance of US$133 million in its interventions in the spot market. During the day, payments for energy imports of the order of US$102 million were registered, while in CAM9 (agro dollar) some US$55 million entered, the lowest amount in four days.
For its part, in the futures market in Rofex, US$387 million was traded, with an increase in open interest of 46,000 contracts to total US$3,502 million. While the first two contracts closed with average falls of 50 cents, the rest of the curve ended with increases of between 50 cents and $15, increasing implicit rates between 10 and 15 percentage points, described from SBS.
Source: Ambito
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