Blue dollar, close to $470 and very volatile: is it time to buy, wait or sell?

This Wednesday, the Dolar blue It lowered its price by $5 to settle at $469 and, thus, erased all the rise that it had registered in the previous day. In this context of so much volatility, the average saver has several doubts, since, faced with uncertainty, he does not know exactly what to do and what is best. Is it time to buy, do we have to wait and see what happens or is it best to sell? The decision cannot be taken lightly, since analysts warn that there are several elements to take into account, such as the currency gapthe monetary policy rate and price projections for the informal exchange rate.

For the economist at Epyca Consultores Joel Lupieri, the most important thing when making these decisions “is still the investor’s perception of the country’s economic situation”, and not only as an isolated agent, but also wondering what is the social mood.

Thus, he considers that the key to containing the escalation of the dollar is through the possibility of obtaining additional external financing. And, in this process, a large part of the cabinet is found, since, to achieve this goal, the current economic management “depends, mainly, on the assistance that we can receive both from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and from other organizations or countries ”.

What determines the price of the blue dollar?

However, Chialva hopes that, beyond the achievement of that objective, the price of the dollar will follow, as it usually does, a logic of the ‘self-fulfilling prophecy’, since he believes that, “if economic agents mostly believe that the dollar is going to rise in price, they will act accordingly, demanding more, and forcing up”.

On the other hand, Lupieri points out that the evolution of the inflation and of the hardening of the trap These are not insignificant data to take into account when making a decision, since it is expected that, while the bulk of Argentines perceive that inflation is eroding their ability to save, the dollar will continue to be one of the preferred ones for savings.

Is blue expensive or cheap?

In your opinion, At around $470, the currency looks expensive compared to its average of the last few months.but he assures that “the decision to buy or wait depends on how he estimates that the local situation will evolve.”

Consequently, for those who believe that inflation will accelerate, the current price of the dollar may represent a buying opportunity, while for those who expect a moderation forward in price dynamics, it may be a better option to go towards a traditional fixed term, taking into account that the last rise in BCRA rates has been conclusive and placed it at around 7.6% per month.

For his part, Gustavo Quintana, from PR Operadores de Cambio, cites an old axiom that is used in the market. “One has to buy when it goes down and sell when it goes up“, says. Although he acknowledges that, in reality, there is no precise parameter to determine it, but that everything depends on the situation of each investor and the objective of his decision. That is, if he needs pesos or not and how long forward he will be able to keep the dollars if he buys, among other variables.

However, he acknowledges that, “in an election year and with too many uncertainties in sight, for me, it is better to buy dollars and sleep peacefully”. He points out that it is true that all other investment alternatives may have some advantage over becoming dollarized, but he also indicates that the tranquility that a low-risk asset such as the dollar can generate should not be underestimated.