Blue dollar: will the exchange rate calm continue or is it preparing to break new records?

The Parallel Dollar traded at $485 for sale, lows of almost a monthso he closed the week with a loss of $7. On Thursday the Ministry of Economy closed what would be the last debt exchange in pesos that will be carried out by the current administration. The Palacio de Hacienda confirmed that maturities were reduced by about $7.4 trillion. Given this, Will the exchange rate calm continue or is the blue dollar preparing to break new records?

Natalia Motyleconomist and CEO of NM consultancyin dialogue with Ambit, opined that “there will be pressure for what could be close to $500 in the next few days”. Among the causes, he said that it is due to nervousness generated by the internal ones and the lack of definitions with the IMF. “There are going to be two key factors. Today, the political takes precedence over the economic and the markets react,” he said and He mentioned the factors that could affect the price of the blue dollar in the short term.

Among those who could bring some calmdescribed Motyl, are the dollars that entered from the liquidation of agriculture in May which was higher than that of the month of April; the disbursements that should enter in June in the event that it is renegotiated with the IMF; China swap extension; good debt swap for a difficult month; greater waistline to intervene in the foreign exchange market.

For her part, among the factors that could influence the rise of the blue, the economist considered that they are: “The lack of political definitions both in the ruling party and in the opposition (some turbulent STEP can generate nervousness); stabilization of commodity prices; expansionary monetary policy to finance the treasury in the months of May and June; Fed interest rate hike; lower inflow of dollars from the external front”.

It should be noted that on Thursday the Ministry of Economy closed what would be the last debt exchange in pesos of the Alberto Fernández management. In the official statement, the Palacio de Hacienda described the exchange as “successful” and stressed that maturities were reduced by about $7.4 trillion. Howeverthe economist Federico Glustein I consider that “State intervention is not supported by private ones (since only 26% joined).

As for the blue dollar performance said he thinks he’s in passivity mode. “The local context of impoverishment of ordinary society with a strong level of indebtedness that does not subside and a lack of income correction inactivates part of the demand in the blue market,” said Glustein.

Then he opined that a very important part of the blue “is linked to the financiers through the MEP and CCL, which the government keeps them intervened and in the absence of strong sales and relative calm in those segments, there is no influence on the blue”. The political scenario that has not been resolved and the arrangement with the IMF if Sergio Massa continues or not in charge of the Economyalso influence the price of the blue dollar, according to his vision.

“Having said that, you can change the trend at any time, especially taking into account the closing of alliances and candidacies. There are expectations placed on the management of the government but also on the electoral process,” he added. “In a not very long period, an activation of the parallel prices and greater firepower to intervene could be generated in a not very long period, which today is nil. In the short term there is no possibility of remaining stable and therefore, I see that the blue and the stock markets will activate again”hill.

For his part, after soaring and surpassing a nominal record, the dollar “Cash with Settlement” (CCL) turns around this Friday and falls, although the MEP maintains bullish streak. The CCL trades in the $475.85 after touching its historical nominal record minutes before at $502.50 while the dollar bag goes up to $475.85.

Joel Lupieri from Elypsis said of parallel exchange rates: “The blue dollar remains low as long as stock market dollars (today intervened) seem to be a cheaper alternative to channel the dollarization of small and medium investors. We are not seeing increased pressure on the informal dollar precisely because many savers prefer the convenience of operating transparently.”

In addition, Lupieri opined that the blue had had its bullish rally a few weeks ago, and now hopefully it will stabilize at a certain level. “Beyond that, it is inevitable that take a path upwards again for the coming months, provided that inflation and the economy do not give better forecasts. I don’t think the exchange had an influence, given the low percentage of private players that entered and that they are the ones who could tentatively dump part of their pesos to the parallel dollar,” he closed.

so far 2023the blue dollar accumulates a raise of $139. In April, it rose $74 (+18.73%) and during May it climbed $21 (+4.5%).