85% corresponds to the so-called money market. The rest is from FCIs that invest in bonds and securities. In the last month there was a rotation of the dollar linked to adjustable by CER.
A large part of market operators believe that, at least until October, the exchange rate will remain relatively stable. Therefore, given the abundance of pesos, the problem for portfolio managers is to find the optimal instruments that allow the funds to remain protected from inflation until a new correction of the official dollar arrives. According to data from the consulting firm 1816, From the August elections until now, the Common Investment Funds (FCI) registered an increase in their portfolios of $820,000. 85% of this correspond to the so-called money market who invest preferably in fixed terms and paid demand accounts. The remaining 25% is from funds that concentrate their investments in bonds and private securities.
“In the mutual fund market, those that include CER assets are gaining ground compared to dollar linked funds: In the CER FCIs there are subscriptions consistently, while in the latter there are redemptions. This means that the market begins to exit the hedge against the dollar -after the devaluation-, and begins to position itself as a hedge against inflation,” Adcap Grupo Financiero proposes in its latest report.
The data from 1816 show that since the elections until now the FCI have unwound positions in dollar-linked bonds for $85,000 million and have entered into CER-adjustable bonds for $112,000 million. In this regard, sources from the MegaQm brokerage company indicated that in the last week there was some portfolio dismantling, but it is understood that they are very temporary. There is a trend of funds that will continue, it is estimated, at least until October, when, according to the Ministry of Economy, the official exchange rate will move again.
According to a survey of Personal Portfolio Investments (PPI) among portfolio managers, 60% of the market expects that the Government can keep the official dollar at $365 until after the elections and more than 85% believe that the Counted with Liquidation it will be $800 for this moment.
That view is what is seen in the behavior of investors. The economist and investor Diego Martínez Burzaco notes that “After the overshooting of the dollar after the devaluation, it is believed that the speed of inflation will be greater” and that is why there is a greater demand for short-term CER-adjustable bonds. Martínez Burzaco suggests that the question for administrators is to know how much and when the official dollar is going to move again to jump back into bonds linked to the dollar.
The financial analyst Christian Buteler points out that “funds have been rotating their portfolios for some time.” of bonds linked to the North American currency and entering those that adjust for inflation.”
The point, points out an operator consulted by Ambit, is to measure the precise moment to rotate again, before the linked dollar bonds rise in price again. “If you take too long, you run the risk of paying dearly,” he explained.
Source: Ambito
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