After the devaluation and the harsh impact it generated on the relative pricesa group of 40 local and international consulting firms, including banks, sharpened the pencil and provided new numbers for key variables such as inflationhe growth yel dollar.
In principle it is worth remembering that the Government devalued 20% official exchange rate and throughout the month it depreciated 27%, so the wholesale ticket became worth $350. Since then, the previous strategy of micro devaluations (“crawling peg”) to fix the exchange rate.
However, the economists They are suspicious that this measure will be sustained unless the Government achieves a considerable recomposition in the Bookings – a little driven by the soybean dollar 4-. On the side of the inflation, The expectation is that after the information that will be released by the INDEC This Wednesday, the CPI moderates slightly for this month although it still remains at high values.
Growth: how much Argentina will fall
Focus Economics’ September report began with a strong definition: “Argentina is about to be the worst performing economy in Latin America this year, shaken by exchange controls, hyperinflation, drought and sky-high interest rates. The increase in the arrival of visitors from abroad and the increase in energy production from Vaca Muerta will provide some support. “Risks are skewed to the downside and include further currency collapse, debt default and political instability.”
Based on this scenario, experts predict that the GDP will contract 2.8% in 20230.3 percentage points less than a month ago.
Inflation: the October estimate and the risks until December
On the other hand, regarding the inflationit is considered that will continue to rise.
“Inflation will rise this year relative to 2022, driven by the collapse of the peso amid monetary financing of the fiscal deficit. A faster-than-expected depreciation of the peso and fiscal largesse ahead of the October elections are key risks ahead. rise,” the economists detail.
In this way, the FocusEconomics panelists consider that the Consumer prices will increase 124.5% on average in 20238.4 percentage points more than in last month’s report (August).
Dollar: what will happen to the exchange rate in December
The economists who participated now estimate that the exchange rate will reach a consensus of $565 at the end of the year, that is, about $107 more than what was forecast for the same date in the August report. Which represents an increase of 23.4%. Therefore, if these data come to pass in reality, the devaluation that would register throughout 2023 would be 219%so it would be well above 124.5% inflation.
And if the quote is taken current wholesale exchange rate ($350.1)which has remained at that level from the day after the PASO (August 14) until now, could increase by 61% from this moment until the end of December.
Dollar: the value predicted by each consulting firm
Through the same document, you can see what the worth that consultant by consultant and the banks themselves predict. There you can see that those that anticipate the greatest devaluation in December are:
- ECO GO ($936)
- Econviews ($754)
- Aurum Values ($750)
- JPMorgan ($750)
- LCG ($705)
- Quantum Finance ($705)
- Fitch Solutions ($700)
Among those that predict the least devaluation are:
- EMFI ($417)
- S&P Global Ratings ($415)
- HSBC ($400)
- Capital Economics ($400)
- Mapfre Economics ($383)
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