Inflation: after the highest figure in 32 years, what should be invested in?

Inflation: after the highest figure in 32 years, what should be invested in?

Last Wednesday, September 13, the INDEC revealed the figures of inflation of the month of August, showing a monthly variation of the 12.4% and an interannual variation of 124.4%, as reported Ambit.

This last data reflected a significant acceleration compared to the previous month, which was around 6.3, meaning that in the first seven months of the year, inflation accumulated has already reached 80.2%, illustrating the complex dynamics current economy. The outlook for the coming months suggests that inflation will remain high.

After the results of the STEP and the initial volatility in the dollarhe central bank adopted decisive measures to stabilize the market, including an increase in the official exchange rate to $350 and a devaluation of 22% of the official currency until the elections on October 22.

Furthermore, they increased reference interest rates at 2100 basis pointsestablishing the rate at 118.0% annually (equivalent to 209% effective annually).

Inflation: what should be invested in?

From the point of view of the brokerage house IOL Invest Onlinethe devaluation of the official exchange rate by the central bank is having a direct impact on inflationgenerating upward momentum compared to previous months.

In this complex scenario, where to maintain uninvested pesos results in loss of purchasing powerfrom the Research d teamand IOLconsider that positioning in CER assets and those that adjust for devaluation represents the best option to preserve value against inflation, taking into account the maturity periods and the investor profile.

For the short term (less than 6 months), they suggest investing in the National Treasury Bill X23N3 that adjusts its capital by CER, thus exceeding inflation and fixed terms. This option could maintain a performance in line with the rise in prices, obtaining approximately $1,250 at maturity with an initial investment of $1,000.

In the medium term, two alternatives emerge:

  • Add to the portfolio the National T2X4 Bonus which adjusts capital by CER, exceeding inflation, with maturity on July 26, 2024 and a current yield of CER +3.9%.
  • Have a position in the TV24 National Bonus linked to the US dollar to build coverage against devaluation, with maturity on April 30, 2024 and a current devaluation yield -7.5%.

For investors with a more aggressive profile interested in equities, we consider that hedging against inflation by buying Pampa Energía shares (PAMP) is a good idea. Pampa Energía is a leading company in the Oil & Gas segment, in addition to participating in the generation and transmission of electrical energyplacing it as the largest integrated electricity company in Argentina.

During the second quarter of the year, it demonstrated a year-on-year increase in profits of 156%, reaching US$166 million. Pampa Energy Not only does it have strong fundamentals, but it also generates income in Dollars through exports, which makes it an alternative to hedge against exchange volatility.

So far this year, Its shares have risen 174% in pesoswidely exceeding the accumulated inflation in 2023 and the rise of the CCL dollar.

Source: Ambito

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