It is worth mentioning that BCRA decided to strongly increase the annual nominal rate (TNA) of the fixed term and Liquidity Letters (Leliq) to 133% last month from the previous 118% annual rate after the INDEC published September inflation, which marked 12.7% and slightly exceeded the 12.4% in August. Now, it is expected that the monetary regulator will keep it unchanged given that the expectation of the private sector and after what the CPI of the City of Buenos Aires showed, inflation last month would be around 9.5/9.9 %.
The Economist Pablo Ferrari he says Ambit that, “given that the CABA CPI was lower than in September, it could be expected that the national CPI will be lower as well” and considers that this means that there are no reasons to raise the Reference rateunless at this moment.
Fixed term: how the deposits come
In addition, from Analytica, economist Claudio Caprarulo points out that “the Fixed-term deposits fell 12.5% in October in real terms.” This responded to so much electoral uncertainty, which accentuated the dollarization of investments and the preference for liquidity. Thus, in the face of this dynamic, everything would indicate that most likely to maintain the rate at current levels.
“Surely, the BCRA will continue with the trend of keeping it similar or slightly above the expectation of inflation with the aim of consolidating deposits in pesos in the system and avoiding adding pressure on the illegal dollar,” he points out. the economist Ricardo Aronskind.
In a similar vein, the economist Christian Buteler when he maintains that, “given that private consultants and CABA measurements anticipate that inflation marked a slowdown in October compared to the previous month.” And, in that sense, he anticipates that, taking this variable into account, it is expected that the BCRA will keep the rate unchanged this month.
They rule out a drop in the fixed term rate
All in all, taking into account that some analysts propose a path of possible lowering of rates before an eventual moderation of inflation, Camilo Tiscornia, director of CyT Economic Advisorsbelieves that a lowering of rates It could be a move with political content, but, taking into account the perspective going forward, it will most likely leave it at the same level as the current one.
And it is that, with a TNA of 133%, it guarantees an annual effective return (TEA) of 253% and a monthly rate (TEM) of 11%the first above the expected annual inflation and the second with many possibilities of beating the October CPI, which would guarantee a real effective return on the fixed term in both cases.
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