The future dollar collapses in the Matba-Rofex this Monday, November 13 and the possibility of sudden devaluation in December and January is further diluted. This happens after presidential debate and in five key days that remain towards the runoff.
The currency prices in this market had spiraled weeks ago before high expectations on the implementation of a dollarization of the economy, one of the core proposals of the Libertad Avanza candidate. But after fewer chances of this program being carried out after the alliance with Together for Change and the readings made by the debate, the market expects that the correction of the official dollar is more moderate.
In this context, the dollar for the December contract experiences a drop of $8 (-1.18%) to $670. While for January 2024the currency collapses $15 (-1.94%) to $760 and -12% (-1.41%) in the February 2024 contract, settling at $838.
It is worth remembering that Massa said that he plans to apply an initial adjustment of $3.50 to the exchange rate regulated by the Central Bank (BCRA), which since August 16 has been fixed at around $350, which will take it to quote $353. 5 pesos. This would be the beginning of a path of gradual reduction of the exchange gap that he wants to put into practice if he wins the elections on November 19 against Javier Milei.
According to a report prepared by FMyA Marull Associates, Beyond the fact that the surveys show parity (51%/49% in favor of Milei), “the market until Friday discounted a winning Massa, as seen by the calm of the December Future Dollar ($680), the CCL dollar ($890) and the parity of the Bonds (at US$30). If the market assumes that the debate benefited Massa, it should loosen the coverage somewhat.”
Key for the market: the inflation data
Today the inflation data for October is expected, which is estimated to be around 10%, which is expected to present a deceleration compared to September. when it marked an increase of 12.7%.
The Secretary of Economic Policy, Gabriel Rubinstein advanced the signs of the slowdown of recent weeks, when last Friday he maintained that inflation in the last week that ended gave “an increase of 2.3%.” and that, in 4 weeks, the estimates of the price variation accumulated they threw a rise of 9.2%.
However this more favorable trend in terms of prices, It should be noted that the methodologies of the measurements carried out by the Economic Policy Secretariat of the Ministry of Economy and the Indec are different.
In this sense, the Marull report estimates that if the official dollar adjusted less than inflation would end up at $370. “That is, it would cost $13 to cover a devaluation at the end of November (Rofex: $383 vs $370). For December, Dollar Future Rofex worth $680, discount winning Massa (assuming Massa at $600 and Milei at $800, minimum); The case of absolute parity (50/50) should point to a future official dollar of $700. Treasury Dollar Link Worth $462; almost 30% more than the official dollar.”
Source: Ambito
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