With the help of YPF, the shares of Argentine companies (ADRs) that are listed in Wall Street recorded a historic rise this Monday, November 20 after the results of the runoff that they dedicated to Javier Milei as the next president of Argentina At the same time, the sovereign bonds in dollars They also advanced firmly in the US. It occurs on a day marked by the local holiday, which means that the Buenos Aires stock market did not operate.
In that framework, the Argentine papers they climbed up to almost 40% led by YPF, which recorded an unprecedented daily advance on the New York Stock Exchange.
With the strong increase, the Argentine oil company managed to reach US$15 per share (compared to US$10.73 on Friday) and Its market capitalization exceeded US$15 billion.
The liberal economist who won the presidential elections on Sunday said he plans to privatize several state companies, including YPF, as part of his strategy to limit the State’s participation in the market and to clean up public accounts. “As long as these structures are rationalized, they are put to create value so that they can be sold in a very beneficial way for Argentines,” Milei said in a radio interview.
The Argentine State nationalized 51% of the oil company more than a decade ago from the Spanish company Repsol. Of the total of these shares, 49% are in the hands of the provinces, which are also owners of the hydrocarbon resources of the southern country.
“State oil and gas company YPF is performing the best thanks to the increasing likelihood of privatization and international price parity,” said Trevor Yates, an analyst at Global X. “While a lower country risk premium should reduce its cost of capital and, in turn, increase production growth profile in the medium and long term,” he added.
But not only YPF shares rose strongly. In the wheel, the assets of Edenor (+24.6%); Transportadora de Gas del Sur (+24.6%); Supervielle Group (+23.9%); Telecom (+22.3%); Cresud (+20.4%); Banco Macro (+20.2%);Central Puerto (+20.1%); BBVA bank (+18.6%); Pampa Energía (+17.9%); and Grupo Financiero Galicia (+17.2%), among others.
For their part, the Sovereign bonds governed by the New York Law and also by Argentine legislation rose above 7%.
Among global bonds, those that increased the most marked a 7% increase, as in the case of the title maturing in 2035, and the one that gained the least did so by 2.4%, such as Global 2030.
It is worth remembering that this Monday, November 20, is a national holiday for Sovereignty Day.
The market’s view after Javier Milei’s triumph
“The large victory in the LLA runoff was positively received by investors during the local holiday, as reflected by ADRs and dollar bonds abroad by registering strong increases from bets taking advantage of their punished valuations, and expectations that a path can be taken to a economic normalization”Gustavo Ber began analyzing the market reaction.
“It happens that the initial speech is opening favorable readings regarding the decision to move towards the correction of the serious imbalances accumulated, without gradualism from the current delicate context. Hence, it is expected to know especially the economic team who will be in charge of designing and implementing a comprehensive stabilization plan that seeks to improve the short-term scenario, seeking to reverse the mistrust and vicious circle of recent times. In order to be able to go through an orderly transition during these almost three weeks towards 10-D – with the collaboration of the ruling party beyond the sudden decision of the Minister of Economy – would be beneficial in seeking to avoid incurring greater delays in relative prices in the face of accelerated inflation,” he concluded.
“The president-elect must dissipate the different sources of uncertainty that affect Argentines. He must put on the leader’s uniform from moment zero,” said Pablo Besmedrisnik, director and economist of Invenómica.
“Today’s instability and the sudden changes that are coming in the different Macro variables are a fact. That is why it is important to describe the situation crudely, but at the same time indicate the first signs of an action plan that will end up forming the necessary stabilization plan“, he claimed.
“It seems to me that it goes have to see some correction but we have to wait for Milei to say (as president, since) many segments of the market were adapting to a victorious Massa,” said analyst Salvador Vitelli.
It is to be expected “a dollar a little more launched and futures a little hotter,” he claimed. “Milei’s speech and the signals he gives will be important, whether it is an ‘incendiary’ Milei like the PASO (August primaries) or a ‘tame’ one in the general elections (October). The latter could be well interpreted by the market,” said Roberto Geretto of Fundcorp.
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