The victory of Javier Milei in the presidential elections generated a very good initial reaction among investors, which made the shares jump, especially in the energy sector, but that initial enthusiasm seems to deflate as the days go by, given that the papers of the companies on the leading panel fell in the last two days. Bonds also began to crash in the last 48 hours and the market analyzes what is the best investment strategy in this context. What to bet on in the era of President Milei?
Paula Gandara, CIO of Adcap Asset Management, states that, beyond the decline in recent days, the company sees “greater appetite for investment instruments in general due to the change in political regime.” That, compared to what has been seen so far.
Meanwhile, looking ahead, the investment expert considers that, “in the short term, and given the possibility that the first measures imply a stabilization plan,” They recommend betting on hedging instruments for inflation and devaluation.
Stocks and bonds: what’s best for 2024
Meanwhile, with our sights set on 2024Mauro Cognettapartner of Global Focus Investment, indicates: “We are going to have a very complex next year in which the first six months of the new management are going to be difficult.” “even though investors welcome certain announcements of market deregulation.”
In that sense, he anticipates that there will continue to be inflation next year and it may even be higher than this year. “The existing problems are not going to be magically resolved”, he warns. And, within that context, consider that Variable income is going to be an interesting alternative for any medium or long-term investor.
In that category, it recommends the actions of Vista Oil and Gas and Pampa Energy. Those, within the energy category because it indicates that YPF’s has already risen too much in recent days and does not seem to continue to be a good option. On the other hand, he mentions that he really likes the role of Bióceres and rules out Aluar’s role because he also considers it to be “very expensive.” She prefers, in her place, Ternium, which has risen less and seems to her “an interesting option.”
However, he clarifies that this is for those investors who want to make their own choice of the instruments in their portfolio. “For someone who can look from now to 2025, I think these are good options, as are global bonds and bonars, which are interesting,” says Cognetta. “I would put 60% in fixed income and 40% in variables. And for someone who wants a little more stability, I would go for inflation-tied bonds,” summarizes.
For the stock market expert Marcelo Bastante, Meanwhile, the most interesting actions are “those of exporters, such as Aluar and Ternium, those of energy companies and those of utilities in expectation of a tariff recomposition.”
In this sense, he mentions as interesting those of Pampa Energía and Central Puerto, Edenor, Transportadora de Gas del Norte and Transportadora de Gas del Sur. While he sees that YPF is also attractive due to the expectation of putting it in value for a subsequent sale to private hands.
Bonds: caution with debt in pesos
“As for the sovereign debt, in accordance with the declarations that the committed payments will be honored, I would position myself in dollar bondswhich despite the initial increase they had, are at extremely low values,” says Bastante.
Meanwhile, he confesses that he would be a little more cautious with sovereign debt in pesosat least until some definitions of government policies begin to be specified as of December 10.
Common Funds or Cedears
On the other hand, Cognetta mentions that A common investment fund is also a good option for those who do not want to put together their portfolio by hand and prefer to leave it in the hands of experts.but he does warn that “he would not have banks in his portfolio, which would imply an eventual dollarization for that sector.”
Finally, the financial advisor Elena Alonso points to the list Negotiable obligations and cedars, since, for her, “being in this currency and making capital grow are still the best alternative to have income in dollars.” But she clarifies that this applies to the medium term, starting at 6 months. Meanwhile, in the short term, choose stock market guarantees and immediate rescue funds.
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