Since it surpassed $1,000 on November 23, it has added 4 falls in a row and lost $150. Given this, Ámbito wondered what was behind it and whether he would continue descending or not.
The MEP dollar hit an all-time high on November 23 when it closed at $1,006However, since that day, a bearish rally began that made it lose $150 in the last four days. What are the causes behind this decline? For that Ambit He spoke with specialists who gave their vision: time to buy or can it go lower?
For the economist, Federico Glusteinpart of the decline in financial prices is due to the fact that the market began to lower the intensity regarding an imminent dollarizationabove all, upon confirming this day that Luis Caputo will be the Economy Minister of the president-elect, Javier Milei. A situation that, however, had already been speculated for several days.
“By virtue of that, the expectation of exchange, fiscal and monetary reforms is looming that lead to a solution to structural problems, such as the lack of foreign currency and the exchange rate, generate a fiscal balance and improve inflation in the medium term, added to the eventual continuity of the stagflationary process“he added Glustein.
Therefore, this economist considered that The market’s goal before dollarization is macro stability and exchange rate unification and, for that to happen, “It should not be above $900, but closer to $800. This is probably temporary calm wanes and a certain tension returns days after starting the administration”.
To its turn, Nery Persichinihead of research at GMA Capitalsaid that for him, among the causes, it is found that “it was seen a genuine capital inflow to buy Argentine bonds and shares after the result of the second round. It is also impacting the expectation of an exchange rate unification in an area similar to the one they have in futures prices currently (below $800)“.
In this regard, it is worth mentioning that on the platform Matba Rofexthe contracts of future dollar suffer new falls. Thus, this day, one dollar to $767while for January it is located at $900 and for February at $993.
For PersichiniAdditionally, this drop in the last four days is due to the fact that “many companies and savers they were overdollarized in the previous election and now they are dismantling positions to face current expenses (which travel at the inflationary rate)“.
Finally, Walter MoralesPresident of Wise Capitalsaid about the causes: “These casualties are due to the fact that hThere are companies that are looking for the opportunity to take advantage of investing Lediv and that some banks still allow you to open demand accounts tied to the wholesale dollar and invest in those accounts. “Those are the reasons we see behind it.”
Source: Ambito
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