November remained gone through the electoral process and the uncertainty that this generated, since the 19 of the same was carried out runoff. But when the numbers of the provisional scrutiny and the victory of Javier Mileibegan the transition period that continues to generate doubts lack of definitions regarding what measures will be taken by the new government from December 10.
Both in the run-up to each electoral event, and these days, in the face of doubts about the future of the economy, investors are looking for coverage on a stage with high inflationwith fears of large devaluation jumps and with great pressure on dollarswhich ceased in recent days but which many analysts agree in classifying as tense exchange rate calm.
In this framework, it is important to know what to invest in, analyzing the November returns and the projection for December of the most popular instruments: deposits in fixed term and the purchase of Dollars.
Investments: How did the dollar do in November?
“The dollar in this month it was a rollercoasterobviously greatly influenced by a context of great political sensitivity“said the investment expert, Diego Martínez Burzaco.
From the last round prior to the ballot until the end of the monthhe MEP dollar fell $13.79. Therefore, investors who bought US currencies thinking about protect your income from a possible devaluation at the close of the electoral race, they recorded losses.
In that sense, the stock market expert, Marcelo Bastanteexplained that “everything depends on the horizon of the investment made”. “He who bought the dollar as a refuge of value and “He who does not need to sell dollars in the short term should not be worried about a economic downturn.”he detailed.
Fixed term: how did it go for those who chose this instrument
Since September, the fixed term traditional provides a monthly effective yield (the TEM) 11%with a annual performance of the 133% annually and one annual effective rate (TEA) of the 253%. However, in the week after the runoff, as Ámbito was able to find out, was analyzed the possibility of implementing a new rate hike but was finally discarded.
In this scenario, the position of analysts regarding this instrument varies. Quite considers that the retail rate offered by the Central Bank (BCRA) matches inflation but, therefore, It is not a good alternative.
Instead, Martínez Burzaco explains that given the drop in the MEP dollar in the last month, “The fixed term ended up being a very good investment”despite the cons that it highlights: staying exposed to exchange rate volatility Yet the lack of liquidity.
Fixed term or dollar: what will be appropriate in December
The inflation expectations for the coming months are high, and even the president-elect, Javier Mileialready warned that Argentina will enter a stagflation period.
In that sense, rates should be maintained, fixed terms will not be able to cover inflation savings. Besides, Martínez Burzaco points out that the MEP dollar seems to be in a good value for those who want to dollarize part of their savings.
December will be the month of the arrival of Javier Milei to the government and in which you will begin to glimpse the economic path that you will decide to take. In that sense, Marcelo Bastante Maintains that “there will be a devaluation of the official exchange ratethat always to some extent ends up having an upward impact on financial dollars.”
“Also a tariff recomposition is expected that will end up having an impact on the inflationary levelsconsequently “It is likely that the BCRA will apply an increase in passive rates”, he added. And he recalled that in the Macri government, when he was Luis “Toto” Caputofuture Minister of Economy, was in charge of the Ministry of Finance, a policy of positive real interest rates was carried out.
In this framework, the economist Elena Alonso stated that the instruments tied to the dollar They’re a good alternative. In this sense, he also pointed out that Investors continue to turn to dollar linked bonds.
Source: Ambito
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