Blue dollar: how much will it be trading at on the first day of the Milei era and what the market expects

For him economist Federico Glustein, the rise these days was “a logical rise as a result of the uncertainty seen prior to the assumption of the new management.” This is indicated in dialogue with Ambit and he assures that, for this reason, the quotes of financiers also rise, reaching $1,000 again.

In the same sense, he points out Christian Buteler, economist, who assures that “it rose as a result of the logical uncertainty of the arrival of a new Government.” He points out that, likewise, it must be said that We arrived at the transfer of command with a fairly calm dollar. And it is that, “Before PASO it was at $1,200and in the middle there was around 30% inflation”, so he considers that such a pronounced jump was not seen.

A new game begins for the blue dollar

However, he points out that “a new match begins this Monday and we will see if the price is validated at around $1,000 or if the market believes that it was being paid dearly.” A first thermometer that analysts have when anticipating what is coming is the dynamics of the market for crypto dollar, the price that never sleeps and that, During the inauguration speech in front of Congress, it shot up 6% and was above $1,200. However, he later moderated the rise to around $1,000.

That was the initial reaction to that quote that the City follows when the markets are closed. But, on the other hand, the financial dollars closed in $980 for the MEP and $991 for the CCL.

For Gustavo Quintana, from PR Change Operators“there was an effect derived from the rise in financial dollars in the blue” and maintains that the dismantling of positions in pesos due to the withdrawal of fixed-term funds, mutual funds and other instruments led to a search for coverage in financial dollars that translated into price increases. “The blue was a little behind with respect to those values ​​and it seems to me that there was a reaction that accommodated it at close levels,” he diagnoses.

And, on the other hand, one of the most commented news by analysts between Wednesday and Thursday was that, in SIOPEL, the Electronic Open Market (MAE) system in which spot (or official wholesale) dollar operations are based, Prices were around $500. Although the Central Bank (BCRA) has not validated these values ​​yetcould do it this Monday and that bet by the operators implies the expectation of a devaluation of around 44% for the start of the new government.

In this context, as pointed out Sebastián Menescaldi, economist and director of EcoGo, Everything indicates that “the market is waiting for what the Government will announce this Monday and how the new Government team will begin to consolidate.” However, he points out that it is likely that “we may have some surprises in the exchange rate in tax matters and, probably, the exchange rate will be a little higher”, even than the one announced by Guillermo Francos, Minister of the Interior of Milei, who anticipated an official dollar around $650.

What’s coming for the blue dollar

On the other hand, he points out that it is to be expected that The Government tries to carry out rapid fiscal consolidation so that “the fiscal aspect emerges as an anchor in addition to the exchange and monetary aspects.” In this scenario, the big question is what price it can reach. Quintana warns that “it is difficult to say.”

We have to wait for the measures to be taken and how the market will react.. However, analyst Salvador Distéfano risks that “without measures in sight, it is likely to get spicy.” He believes that we have to wait to find out what they will do.

For now, Glustein anticipates that, potentially, ““It could be above $1,000”, although it does not rule out that a reduction could be seen when the economic program is known. Everything will depend on how the official market opens this Monday, what announcements the incoming Government makes and how the dynamics of financial dollars behave. However, for the moment, this Friday’s price does not seem to be a high price for the coming days in the blue market.