Let us remember that this Monday the organization in charge of Santiago Bausili announced a reduction in the interest rate of traditional fixed terms to 30 days. In this way, the Annual Nominal Rate (TNA), which was 133%, It became 110% For new deposits made, that equates to a return of 9.04% per month, nowhere near the 25-30% estimated inflation for the months to come.
The analysts consulted by Ambit they agree that today There is no instrument in the capital market that offers coverage against 30 points of inflation. For example, the bonuses linked to the Consumer’s price index (IPC), like the Boncer TX24 (which expires on March 25, 2024) already performs below inflation, “so you are paying very dearly for an instrument that is not going to cover 100% of the price increase that is yet to come,” he explains. Javier Casabalfixed income strategist at Adcap Grupo Financiero, Ambit.
For Casabal, attractive instruments that yield at a fixed rate appear on the horizon and are emerging as “the only alternative” that will be offered in the Treasury tender this Wednesday. This is because the banks were not able to place all the offer they made in the last tender for Leliqs and now they will have to go towards Treasury instruments (Ledes and Lecer) to continue “making the weights yield“.
Treasure: a new instrument is born
What the Adcap analyst is referring to is the announcement of the Ministry of Economy on the conditions for the Milei government’s first peso debt tender, in which a debt instrument will be offered short term fixed ratean opportunity for banks that will no longer be able to place their pesos in Leliqsbut also for savers.
The question that arises in this scenario is whether there are incentives to go to the tender. For Casabal, the short answer is yes, “speaking between now and January 18“, but raises doubts regarding how sustainable is this. Will the Treasury also be able to issue at a fixed rate in February? And in March? That will depend a bit on inflation expectations.
And, as he explains well Sergio GonzalezCFA Head of Asset Management at Cohen Inversiones, the forecast is that the Government will work “with negative real rates for a while to mitigate a little the complicated months of activity that are coming”, so the option of maintaining the rate as it is slips “as long as necessary“. For this reason, the analyst considers that “investment alternatives for that context there are no“This refers to the fact that in the investment offer there are no options that beat inflation with certainty.
However, González clarifies that there are assets that the investor can bet on if he considers that “this adjustment is going to be successful”, such as global bonds, which pay in dollars and offer a good perspective for the long term or even the actions. The latter, thinking about the second part of the year. In terms of pesos, González warns, “if the benchmark or the reference point is inflationIt’s going to be very hard and difficult to overcome that obstacle.“.
MEP dollar: an alternative
Following the BCRA’s decision on the cost of borrowing, it is possible that the demand for the blue dollar ($995) will increase, since those who do not renew their placements in pesos will surely migrate, in part, to that exchange rate given the few options available to them. the market offers. That will end up putting upward pressure on the price of the parallel exchange rate.
In this scenario, it should be noted that the dollar bag either MEP ($965) has been trading below the value of the informal exchange rate, Therefore, it is configured as an interesting alternative instrument to the fixed term as well.
As analyzed Pablo Reppetohead of Research at Aurum Valores, for a traditional saver who was looking to improve his income with the rate of a fixed term, “The situation that arises from now on is complicated.“. In line with the other analysts consulted, he indicates that “there are not many” liquid assets that hedge against inflation and that at the same time have low price risk.
This is where a chance arises in the MEP dollar which, according to Reppeto, “has always worked as an alternative investment to the fixed term“. The analyst also highlights instruments that could perform better than remaining in a fixed term, such as some bonds adjustable by the official exchange rate (mentions TV24), or by inflation (highlights T6X4), “although both would perform below expected inflation“, but it would be less negative than maintaining the position in the traditional fixed term after the recent drop in rates.
UVA Fixed Term: the last alternative standing
Consequently, for the retail investor, the “pre-cancelable UVA fixed term“is an attractive option, since it can mitigate the effects of inflation, especially for those who are prisoners of the pesos. However, users on social networks denounce obstacles on the part of banks for placements of this typeeven, as far as he could know Ambitsome entities only allow investing in this instrument up to $500,000 from home banking, while from the phone app “not available“.
This, according to González de Cohen, is due to the banks’ quota, “that without being a formal issue“They are beginning to apply it or, even, “Some financial institutions ask you to go to the branch to prepare the fixed termFor the analyst, “there are operational obstacles to implementing them, basically, because the banks cannot turn around and cover that risk against anything.”
Thus, whoever manages to place a UVA fixed term You have to know that they are deposits in pesos for at least 90 days, which adjust in line with inflation plus a rate of 1% annually. There are two formatsthe traditional and the pre-cancelable. Within this second option, what changes is that The BCRA decided to eliminate the minimum prepayment rate, which implies that the conditions will now depend on the banks, the economist explains to this medium Elena Alonso.
In this way, while the Government dries up the peso market, Alonso’s suggestion is to opt for the Bills that the Treasury will tender this week, instead of UVA fixed term, since they offer the possibility of selling them faster. Although the UVA fixed term now offers automatic cancellation without penalty, “the recommended approach for investors looking to protect themselves from inflation would be to head towards these new bills, considering its potential performance and liquidity“he concludes.
Source: Ambito
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