One of the most recognized consultancies in the City published a report in which it warns of the problems that may threaten the parity of BOPREAL and gives three possible paths regarding what importers can do in the face of these risks.
A report warns about the risks that the Bonus for the Reconstruction of a Free Argentina (BOPREAL) represents for Importers and recommends to those who were left with pesos what to do with them.
Let us remember that the Central Bank (BCRA) A new tender for these bonds began this Wednesday with the market expectation that in this call the entity managed to cover the quota of US$5,000 million from the first series. This Thursday the call closes and the result will be known. Until now The BCRA awarded 31% in three previous calls. Last Thursday they negotiated US$1,179 million, but 90% of them correspond only to the automotive company Toyota.
Given this tender, the consulting firm ADCAP warned importers that bond parities could fall for three reasons:
- That there is a delay in the real exchange rate, generating a lower trade surplus. “However, the expectation of a new exchange rate jump to come combined with the gap, could make ARS 818 look like a good entry point, beyond the exit point,” they indicate.
- That the Treasury continues to have access to the reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA) through Nontransferable Letters, as was done last week for debt payment. “In this sense, the idea of the “best issuer” would be questioned,” they say in ADCAP. And they consider that the alternative is to reverse, in the short term at least, a portion of the non-transferable bills and to establish a clear course.
- A level low liquidity, since they indicate that the first tenders were small and it is still not clear how much liquidity these securities will have in the secondary market.
BOPREAL: The three ways to avoid these risks
Initially, They expect that the market will begin to narrow the bid offer spread from $50-$80 towards something closer to $60-$70. “We hope to see the first relevant operations around $65, equivalent to a yield of 19%,” they indicate. And, as a reference, ADCAP points out that, for example, bonds of similar “duration” from the Province of Córdoba operate at around 14%, while in Salta they yield 18%.
Given these scenarios described, They recommend three possible paths to those who were left with the pesos:
- The first is keep the pesos and carry waiting for the gap to narrow.
- The second is exit to the dollar Cashed With Settlement (CCL) and assume the cost of the gap at 45%since it jumped in recent days, and at the same time lose access to the official market (MULC) for 90 days.
- Finally, they mention the possibility of opting for Bopreal, betting that the secondary market will provide the dollars at a parity greater than 70%.
Let us remember that, with the BOPREALthe BCRA offers access to future reserves from the trade surplus and ensures that the inflation figure of 25.5%, lower than expected, supports the thesis that the BCRA will be able to continue accumulating reserves without a new exchange rate jump.
Source: Ambito
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