He capital market It is one of the few refuges that the saver and investor has at the moment in a context in which the fixed term is not an option, since with a rate of 9% loses strongly with inflation of 25.5%, and UVA requires a very long period of stay. In that context, with almost no asset that beats that index with its returns, it is difficult to decide where to invest your capital. For this reason, analysts rehearse, in dialogue with Ambit how to put together one wallet with $1 million.
Option 1: dollar and fixed income
“With a million pesos, I would put together a 70-30 portfolio, in favor of the dollar,” he believes. Joel Lupieri, from Epyca Consultores. And he suggests that it could be organized this way: 70% in MEP dollars and the rest in fixed income assetslike actions.
Option 2: a bet on the carry trade
For its part, Juan Pedro Mazza, Senior Fixed Income Strategist at Cohen Aliados Financierospoints out that “the gap at 60% opens an opportunity for carry trade, which is why it is advisable to stay in bonds in pesos” and details that there are several factors that cause the rise of the dollar to lose momentum in the coming days:
i) the attractiveness of the Bopreal tenders is greater,
ii) strong weight absorption (fiscal adjustment, Treasury tenders and liquefaction of real balances),
iii) The BCRA accumulates dollars quickly and the trade balance in 2024 will be very positive,
iv) the Government has the tool to upload the monetary policy rates.
In this sense, Mazza points out that, In a context of such low rates, it is advisable to maintain short positions (less exposed to a rate rise) and bet on the dual TDF24 bonus and the dollar-linked TV24 bonus.
Thinking about longer bonds, recommends the CER T2X5 and the dollar-linked TV25which expire early next year and are ideal for capturing gap compression.
Option 3: UVA fixed term and other assets according to risk profile
Meanwhile, the economist Christian Buteler prefers to differentiate portfolios by profile. “A conservative investor you can think about putting a 30% of your capital (in this case $300,000) in a fixed term UVAwhich covers against inflation, and the rest would be in Dollars“he points out.
This portfolio option that Buteler chooses is based on the fact that all options in pesos today have negative rates and clarifies that it must be taken into account that, Regarding the UVA fixed term, it is required to leave the money invested for six months immobile.
On the other hand, for a riskier profileconsider that you can put a 20% (about $200,000) in a UVA fixed term and the rest, part in local stocks, 10% in bondsbetting on an eventual stabilization and growth of Argentina, and leave a percentage to invest in Cedears.
Although he warns that it must be taken into account, when thinking about shares of companies abroad, that look for signatures “that are secure because it is a hedge against local risk and devaluation, which can lose value if the external outlook worsens.”
Option 4: for a moderate/aggressive investor
And finally, the economist Elena Alonso points out that a portfolio with $1 million for an investor who tends to be moderate/aggressive I would distribute it like this:
- 50% in negotiable obligations that follow the dollarsuch as YPF, Edenor and Pampa Energía;
- 30% of cedarswith a focus on technology (such as Apple, Google, Mercado Libre and Microsoft);
- 10% on AL30 bonuses and
- 10% in MEP dollars, “to have liquidity.”
The alternatives are several and the important thing is to take into account the level of knowledge that each one has of the capital market and What degree of risk are you willing to assume? when thinking about the investments to be made. Advice is always necessary, but it is good to listen to and read the different analysts to make decisions based on knowledge.
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