The markets remain optimistic and doubts about possible debt restructuring are cleared up.
The S&P Merval marks its fifth day on the rise this Thursday, March 21, due to renewed portfolio purchases in line with positive macroeconomic indicators, amid political tensions surrounding Javier Milei’s management. Meanwhile, dollar bonds rise again and mark a new decline in the risk country.
In that context, the porteño bag It rises 1.63%, to 1,204,472.16 units, after increasing 14.14% in the previous four sessions and thus approaching the record of 1,134,440.11 points set at the beginning of February.
The good accounting result of the trade balance in February and a fiscal surplus for the first two months of the year give confidence to financial investorsin the midst of unemployment of 5.7% at the end of the year and a GDP in 2023 with a contraction of 1.6%.
On the other hand, Argentine stocks operate mixed on Wall Street with increases of up to 2%, led by Banco Macro and YPF (1.9%). The decreases of up to 1.5% correspond to Edenor and IRSA (-0.8%). The ADRs are then decoupled from the good mood of Wall Street lafter the decision of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Keeping interest rates stable was welcomed by global markets, in line with an expected drop by the end of 2024.
Dollar bonds maintain the rally
In the fixed income segment, dollar bonds maintain increases of up to 1.7% and the country risk remains below $1,500, with a fall of 1.74% to 1,472 basis points. minimums since June 11, 2021.
In a recent Morgan Stanley report visiting Argentina, he cleared the possibility of debt restructuring in 2025. “This leaves Very attractive sovereign dollar bonds with another 33% increase from today, especially the initial bonuses. The main risk for dollar bonds is that the fiscal adjustment is not sustained and that all fiscal measures are rejected by Congress, leaving a primary deficit. If the growth of foreign exchange reserves also fails to reach the expected $12 billion in 2024, the likelihood of a debt restructuring in 2025 increases,” he concluded.
Source: Ambito
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