Argentine assets on Wall Street: stocks operate with a majority of losses, but bonds are in the green

The Argentine stock market has no activity today due to the Holy Thursday holiday and there is no listing of bonds or shares in the local market, but yes, the assets that operate on Wall Street are active, showing a negative performance for variable income and a slightly positive performance for fixed income.

And, today, we observe a majority of declines in the papers of national companies listed in New York. The stock that sinks the most this Thursday, March 28, is that of Banco Macro, which loses 5.46%followed by Galicia Financial Group (-2.64%) and Supervielle Group (-1.9%). Meanwhile, the shares that rose during the day are Cresud, which climbed 4.1%; Telecom (+3.37%) and IRSA (+1.01%).

Banks, the ADRs that fall the most: the reasons

It is observed a negative trend, mainly, in the papers of the banks and this responds, on the one hand, to the fact that emerging market assets lose attractiveness due to the possibility that the US delays the decision to lower rates that is finally expected for the second half of the year.

“Today the United States experiences some doubts about the bullish rally that stocks have been showing. If American inflation does not go down, the dollar will strengthen, and we will probably see a “flight to quality”: that is, investments will leave emerging countries, seen as risky, they will fly to the US,” he tells Ambit he economist at Epyca Consultores Joel Lupieri.

And, on the other hand, the latest statements by President Javier Milei regarding his plans for monetary policy and the local financial system have an impact. “We are working on a reform of the financial system. “We want to integrate the format of the banks with the capital market, to move towards a free banking format that allows us to lift the restrictions and only then impose the law of non-monetary issuance, because issuing money is a scam,” said the president. Javier Milei in his speech at the International Economic Forum of the Americas.

Likewise, there are rumors in the City that the Central Bank (BCRA) could make downward changes in the monetary policy rate next month, which would have a strong negative impact on the liabilities held by the banks. The bonds held by financial institutions would soon lose value with a measure of this style.

For Lupieri, “it may be that this is contributing, without a doubt to the decline in bank shares, but we must also consider that they were already rising a lot.” Thus, he implies that one could be seeing a logical rearrangement after a previous strong rise in stocks.

Bonds and country risk

Meanwhile, the sovereign bonds listed in New York show a slightly positive trend on New York screens. “There is not much reference today because of the local holiday,” Lupieri explains in this regard. However, this dynamic that is seen is related to a positive expectation of investors for the policies of the current government and their confidence in the current economic path.

In the fixed income segment, sovereign bonds in dollars under New York legislation marked increases of up to 0.2% this Wednesday, led by Global 2046, while titles in pesos with CER adjustment marked increases of up to 0.9% , headed by the TX26.

Yesterday, Argentine stocks and bonds crowned one of their best months in recent times, registering advances of up to 40% in March, driven by the expectations of a quick “V” recovery in the Economyafter “twin surpluses” were recorded in the first two months of the year.

This Thursday, the trend is repeated in the bonds listed on Wall Street and the bonds have a slight upward trend, with increases of up to 1.1%. The country risk falls 3 points on the day and stands at 1,439 points and is at the lowest levels since 2021. Recently, President Milei said that he was confident that it would soon reach 1,000 points. But that goal still seems distant.