In a recent meeting with large business chambers, the president Javier Milei He promised that he will get out of the trap in the short term and the Government has already set the date in “the next two or three months.” The market seems to agree with that forecast.
A recent report by the consulting firm Econviews, which belongs to Miguel Kieuelexpressed as an encouraging fact to take that path that the dollar had no movements after the rate reduction. “It must be remembered that today the cash price with settlement has a tiny premium compared to what it would be like to buy official dollars plus the country tax. We also have to see what to do with the “blend” or the export in 80-20. Today cash with settlement has an artificial supply that already yields only around 4% (20% exported to the CCL, with a 20% premium). A distortion is generated that already yields very little.”
In that sense, the consulting firm’s base scenario is that it leaves the stocks in July, although it warns that they are not sure if there will be “truly free” access to the market and as for rates, it maintains that they should once again be positive in terms real.
In that sense, it proposes an intermediate solution: using exchange bands or a split with the commercial and financial dollar, as ways of not generating so much negative shock when lifting restrictions.
Exchange stocks: what are the factors that must be resolved before
To lift the stocks, the Government still depends on several factors. One will be the strong income of dollars from the harvest expected between April and June, something that would contain a possible escalation of the dollar and would leave a good scenario for lift restrictions. This allows us to think that the dollar could remain at these levels.
Some officials estimate the liquidation of the agricultural sector at around US$30 billion. However, this represents an overestimation of the harvest, considering that the starting point is a lower base because about US$20,000 million less was settled last year due to the drought.
The expectation is that the crawling peg of 2% will be maintained, although analysts estimate that this month there could be a new rhythm in line with inflation to prevent the exchange rate from falling behind.
For some analysts, the success of the Bopreal bonds will also be key to lifting the stocks. that absorb the pesos that importers could allocate to the official dollar or the cash with settlement (CCL) at the same time that the Government must begin to pay the debt accumulated with importers.
They also maintain that, in a high inflation scenario, it is still necessary for the BCRA’s net reserves to continue growing, which, although it has already left the negative territory, must continue to accumulate to face debts and achieve the long-awaited exit from the stocks with sufficient power of fire from the monetary authority.
Source: Ambito
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