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Be careful with the dollar: the causes behind a drastic change in the market

Be careful with the dollar: the causes behind a drastic change in the market

The 80% wholesale dollar blend and 20% CCL dollar cannot be maintained all year, since the central bank would lose dollars for their Bookings. Solutions?

According to him Market Expectation Survey Exports for the entire year 2024 would be US$80,281 million, if 20% is settled with the CCL dollar, what would actually enter the Central Bank amounts to US$64,224.8 million. Imports would be US$64,643 million, according to the same source.

If this settlement scheme is maintained, the income of dollars to the BCRA during the year 2024 would be negative by US$ 418.2 million. This tells us that it will be difficult to maintain a mixed or blend dollar throughout 2024 that settles exports where the wholesale dollar weighs 80% and the CCL dollar weighs 20%.

According to what was signed with the IMF, this blend dollar should cease to exist in the second semester, therefore, the government should make a decision regarding the exchange rate, give exporters a lower exchange rate than the current one, or adjust the rate. of change so as not to generate a loss of competitiveness. In this context, it would be ideal to eliminate the country tax, so as not to generate distortions between an export and import dollar.

If there is a change in the way the exchange rate is measured, we could have a change in the future prices of raw materials, since they currently copy the current value and project this distortion into the future. Therefore, the future prices of many raw materials could be overvalued, including soybeans, corn, wheat, among others.

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After tensions and Iran’s attack on Israel in the Middle East, we have seen how oil, far from increasing, fell, and this caused the prices of soybeans, corn and wheat to show a decreasing trend. It would seem that prices had discounted the possibility of war tensions, and are now showing a decrease in prices.

The possibility that the American government will assist with monetary aid to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan raises the possibility of a greater fiscal difficulty, and this pushes the United States to increase indebtedness, the rates of return on 10-year treasury bonds would return to test the level of 5.0% annually, if it exceeds it, we are in trouble.

The rise in rates also has its impact on the capital markets of developed and emerging countries. The American stock market was very weakened in recent rounds, and in Argentina there was a drop in prices, after several months of consecutive increases.

The foreign currency note that is worth a lot

The ticket that sells for 800 dollars.

The ticket that sells for 800 dollars.

Conclusion

. – The dollar blend will end sooner rather than later, we will return to a single exchange rate, and we will have to be careful with the prices of raw materials in the future. The ideal would be to eliminate the country tax.

. – Without a single exchange rate for exports and imports, it will be difficult to generate dollars to increase reserves. The change will surely operate from the second semester.

. – The rate of return on American treasury bonds could be above 5.0% annually. If this happens, be careful with the American market, the decline could impact the entire emerging world.

. – Argentine bonds will have a positive trend if the government continues to show a fiscal surplus, reserves rise, inflation falls, and the ideal would be for it to obtain some international credit, which was promised so many times, for now and only for now, they have not been able to do so. specify. If the arrival of fresh dollars to strengthen reserves takes place, it would not be unreasonable for the country risk to drop below 1,000 points.

Financial analyst

Source: Ambito

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