The blue dollar and financiers are burning: how far can they go?

The blue dollar and financiers are burning: how far can they go?

The blue dollar and the CCL rose $110 and $80 between Monday and Tuesday, driven by the lowering of BCRA rates, the meager harvest settlement and political uncertainty.


The beginning of this week in financial matters was marked by the rebound of the blue dollar and financials, exhibiting increases that had not been seen since January. While analyzing the causes of this reaction, the market debates whether prices will continue to rise or if it was a simple price rearrangement.

Between Monday and Tuesday, the The blue dollar jumped $110 to reach $1,230. For its part, the CCL operated in the same direction, with an increase close to $80 that leaves it at $1,183, with a gap of 33.1% with the official exchange rate, the highest since February 20.

Most specialists agree that the main factor of this acceleration in values ​​is the constant rate reduction by the Central Bank (BCRA). Likewise, they also affect the low supply of dollars for exports in the official exchange market (which impacts the CCL offer for the dollar blend scheme) and the doubts regarding the approval of the basic law.

Looking to the future, from Romano Group they believe that still “There are still factors that can keep the dollar calm at current levels” as a possible intensification of the liquidation of the coarse harvest or even the permanence of the stocks, although They warned that the end of the carry trade, added to the stagnation in the upper house of the basic law, could generate greater volatility.

With a similar look, Delphos Investment recalled this Tuesday in a report that “the long nap since the last nominal maximum of the CCL in January made possible a very important carry in different instruments in pesos with little volatility”, but that based on the BCRA rate reduction “it will be necessary to monitor the breadth of this bullish rearrangement”.

For its part, in the SBS Groups They maintained their view that the CCL market and, therefore, the blue market, moves mainly by flows and pointed out that Today “the key variable to monitor continues to be export liquidationsespecially those of agriculture in the months of heavy harvest.”

In that sense, it is worth noting that the liquidation of exports contracted with respect to last week’s values, remaining below US$300 million per day, which reduces supply in the CCL.

The Economist Gustavo Ber agreed in dialogue with Ambit that “lowering rates plus political uncertainty” is the combo that is driving parallel dollars and estimated that the “financials – which act as a compass – would have an important test in the $ 1,200 areaequivalent to a gap of around 35%.” “The blue is a retail market and usually respects these references, since it activates arbitrations,” he said.

Likewise, the economic analyst Salvador Di Stefano He dared to predict in conversations with this medium that Possibly $1,300 is the ceiling of the blue dollar.

Source: Ambito

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